WTI Forecast: Hormuz Risks, Aramco Impact, and OPEC Supply

I recorded this video on Friday, ahead of the escalation, comparing the 2025 12-Day Iran War and the possible 2026 setup. The updated analysis is in the final section of this article.

What is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow two-mile passage, that’s it, two miles of water shaking global economic headlines, where 20-30% of global oil and gas supply pass by sea.

It sits between Iran to the north and Oman/UAE to the south, linking key exporters including:

• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Iraq
• Kuwait
• Qatar

And key importers China, India, Japan, and South Korea, influencing global pricing and spreads across

• Crude oil
• Natural gas
• Jet fuel
• Energy equities
• Import dependent currencies

Bypass Alternatives, and Why they Fall Short

There are two pipelines that can bypass the Strait. Together, they handle roughly 25% of normal flows.

• Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline: Can transport up to 7 million b/d to the Red Sea. However, the Red Sea itself carries geopolitical risk from Houthi attacks.
• The UAE’s Fujairah Pipeline: Adds around 1.8 million b/d, but only covers Abu Dhabi’s onshore fields. Roughly half of the UAE’s total production still faces export risk.
• Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq have no true bypass alternatives. Qatar’s LNG physically cannot exit any other way.

Current State (As of March 2^nd, 2026)

As of today, the Strait remains constrained rather than fully blocked. However, with recent attacks on vessels and insurance premiums rising to six-year highs, the passage is now economically and physically high risk for most operators.

The market impact is behaving as if the strait is closed, pricing the risks in.

How Does This Impact Crude Prices? What Is the Forward Outlook?

With Strait risks dominating headlines, shifting focus from glut concerns back to supply disruption, crude prices gapped over 3% on Monday’s open, with WTI peaking near 75band Brent near 82.

While risks are escalating towards Europe including British bases, OPEC’s announcement to increase production in April by 206,000 b/d, ending a three-month pause, added a hint of supply stabilization. Still, should conditions continue to escalate, supply risks are expected to persist.

A recent incident involving Saudi Aramco added further supply disruption concerns, potentially exposing crude prices toward inflationary territory should escalation prolong.

Regionally:

• The TASI gapped down on Sunday’s open
• Global equities reflected negative sentiment on Monday’s open
• Safe havens, precious metals and the US dollar, moved higher.
• The ADX and DFM closed in an attempt to maintain price control amid this unprecedented escalation

Technical Analysis: Will the Price Gap Close?

WTI Forecast: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

WTI gapped above the 70 mark, reaching a high near 75.30 before reverting toward 72.

From a technical standpoint, traders may look at a potential gap-closing move into the 68–69.30 zone as a corrective scenario should prices fall back below 72.

A further close below 68 would expose the upper boundary of the 2.5-year down trending channel in place since September 2023, opening the debate between a bullish rebound attempt or broader bearish reassertion.

On the upside a sustained close back above 75 would expose the 79 region, echoing the 12-Day Iran War move of 2025. A sustained break above 80 would challenge the longer-term bullish structure. Failure there could rotate price action back toward glut risks and the 70–60 mean zone.

The RSI is rising toward levels last seen in September 2023, suggesting upside momentum may face technical limitations, should fundamentals align.

Brent Forecast: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From Brent’s perspective, highs have surpassed those of 2025, reaching 82. However, price action is still attempting to hold above the 2025 highs near 78, keeping upside risks exposed toward 82 and potentially 89 respectively.

A close back below 76 and then 73 would re-expose the 70 zone and the upper boundary of the broader downtrending channel, opening the door for either a bullish retest from support or a realignment with the prevailing bearish bias in place since 2022.

Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves