
AUD forecast: Is the Aussie dollar warning of a major Asia FX shift?
The Aussie dollar has long been a way to express a view on emerging Asia. That may be changing as the region's currencies begin moving in the same direction against the US dollar.
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The Aussie dollar has long been a way to express a view on emerging Asia. That may be changing as the region's currencies begin moving in the same direction against the US dollar.
AUD/USD is charging higher, powered by a hotter-than-expected Australian March quarter consumer price inflation report that has seriously dented the case for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year.
Traders have been searching for evidence of market tightness in crude oil for months, wondering when production and export cuts from OPEC and Russia would filter through to visible inventories. Perhaps they just found it.
New Zealand has a homegrown inflation problem like Australia, limiting the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBNZ) in the absence of a n abrupt global economic downturn. The NZD/USD is bid as rate cut bets are trimmed.
Traders come across as almost desensitised to geopolitical developments in the Middle East nowadays, unable to sustain market moves on increased tensions beyond anything other than the short-term. Just look at gold and crude oil last Friday for evidence.
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