News & analysis

Crude oil is setting the tone across rates and FX, leaving EUR/USD vulnerable and USD/JPY caught between higher Treasury yields and the growing threat of intervention

Recent trading sessions have reflected a more neutral tone around the Australian dollar. This can be seen in AUD/USD price action, which has posted moves of roughly 0.2% over the last two sessions without establishing a clear direction. Much of this lack of momentum is linked to expectations surrounding the next policy moves from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve.

Gold and silver prices took a plunge today, with the former down 3% and the latter falling some 5% by mid European session, before bouncing off their lows. The losses come after the metals remained largely supported until last week, despite the big dollar rally and surging bond yields as we have seen in recent weeks. But it simply got too much, and the metals succumbed to pressure today.

It’s a huge week with PCE and NFP, but it’s what’s happening off of the calendar that demands attention with US yields flying to fresh multi-decade highs.

Recent trading sessions have produced mixed results for the Japanese yen. By the end of last week, USD/JPY had fallen by more than 1.00%, reflecting a modest recovery in the yen. However, the start of this week has seen the pair move slightly back in favor of the U.S. dollar, posting gains of around 0.04%.

U.S. stocks are pointing to a weaker open on Monday after President Trump rejected an Iranian ceasefire, sending oil prices higher and fuelling inflationary concerns and pushing Treasury yields higher.

The week has started with stocks, gold, silver and bitcoin all falling, as crude oil rebounded and bond yields pushed further higher. Trump refusing to agree to Tehran’s proposal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz has left the markets disappointed. Still, reports that mediators are expected to hold talks with the two sides on an amended version of the 7-day proposal that Iran presented, keeps hopes alive that we may see some progress.

Gold has dipped below its three-month uptrend, while Bitcoin has pulled back from a nine-month high as U.S. bond yields test levels last seen in 2004 and 2007. Risks build as Fed rate-hike expectations remain above 70%, while the Dollar Index holds near yearly highs.

Crude Oil Q4 2026 Outlook: The U.S.-Iran conflict has done more than disrupt oil flows. It has challenged many of the assumptions underpinning the global energy security system established after the 1973 oil embargo.

Oil Rises as U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes Fade. Gold Breaks Down on Hawkish Fed Expectations as Treasury Yields and USD Rise.

WTI is being pulled in opposite directions as Hormuz risk collides with growing political pressure over US diesel prices.

US dollar net-longs surged at their fastest pace in seven years as futures traders added bearish exposure to the euro and British pound.