News & analysis

After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.

Surging Treasury yields sent a jolt across markets last week but, so far, gold prices have held above the FOMC low. The big question now is whether that can continue and, if not, will bulls show up at $4100 or $4k like they did in June and July?

Earnings from Nike comes as the share price trades at a 12-year low. Micron Technology keeps the AI trade in focus and Carnival suffers from rising fuel costs.

As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.

EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.

There's still an open door for a melt-up in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq but the Dow and Russell 2000 are looking more vulnerable, and until calm hits the Treasuries market there's a higher probability for volatility. The big question is whether that's a next quarter theme or not.

U.S. stocks are rising on Friday after a volatile week that saw a surge in Treasury yields ripple through financial markets.

AUD/USD enters Q4 with RBA and Fed hikes in focus as sticky inflation, rising unemployment and US dollar strength shape the Australian dollar.

The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.

The final stretch of 2026 is approaching, and North America's major currencies have begun to show a shift in the strength dynamics seen earlier in the year. New expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly in the United States, could be significantly reshaping the outlook for the region. At the same time, this backdrop, combined with potential trade tensions across North America, may become one of the most important drivers of currency performance in the months ahead.

The outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 is turning cautiously optimistic on the back of renewed ETF purchases, compelling valuations, and an improvement in buy-and-hold behavior among investors - see the full analysis!

USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk builds.