Bitcoin, Nasdaq Price Outlook: Markets Pause as Hormuz Risks Weigh on Risk Appetite

Risk sentiment remains cautious as markets also price in potential ceasefire developments, with attention turning to the Wednesday deadline. Bitcoin continues to hold 76,000, and the Nasdaq remains supported near 26,600, both driven by stretched bullish momentum and partial ceasefire expectations.

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Several deadlines have been reported since the start of this conflict, alongside recurring headlines around Hormuz opening, potential closures, and near-term deal expectations. However, price action continues to prove more reliable than headline-driven volatility, as markets tend to price in developments ahead of the news cycle.

What are the next expectation waves that may drive market trends?

• The BOJ outlook, should policy turn more hawkish
• The FOMC outlook, if it remains biased toward the hawkish end
• War-related headlines exceeding expectations

Key charts and levels to watch

• DXY: Holding above 98.00–97.50 support, with resistance at 99.50–100.60
• Crude Oil: 88–93 resistance zone, 76–74 support zone (see latest article: Hormuz News are Noise, Price Action Leads)

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a weekly perspective, the long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by a confluence of factors:

• The rebound from the 60,000 psychological level and the 0.618 retracement of the 2022–2025 uptrend
• A breakout from the bearish wedge formed between November 2025 and January 2026
• Former 2020 highs acting as support after turning from resistance
• A rebound from oversold levels last seen in 2022, when Bitcoin traded near 15,000

The bullish confirmation level for a breakout has shifted to 78,000, aligning with the trendline connecting higher highs since February. A sustained break above this level opens the path toward 86,000 and 90,000 initially, followed by 100,000, 115,000, and 130,000, reinforcing the outlook for new record highs.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s price action near the 78,000 level aligns with the upper bound of the parallel channel extending from the February lows. At the same time, overbought momentum conditions suggest near-term pullback risks unless a decisive close above 78,000 is confirmed.

A move back below 60,000 could open the door for another corrective leg lower before the broader bullish trend resumes, with potential downside targets at 56,000 and 48,000.

Nasdaq Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Comparing Nasdaq price action between April 2025 and April 2026 highlights how markets tend to bottom ahead of headline confirmation. This year, the index rebounded from the 22,800 support level and surged toward the 26,600 resistance, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension of the uptrend between April 2025 and October 2025.

A close above this level would extend the upside outlook toward the next Fibonacci ratios:

• 50% retracement near 27,800
• 78.6% retracement near 28,900–29,000

On the downside, short-term pullback risks could revisit the 26,300–26,100 former resistance zone. A breakdown below this range may trigger a deeper correction toward previously respected levels at 25,800, 25,500, and 25,200.

Ceasefire developments are often priced in well ahead of official headlines. Maintaining disciplined risk management alongside price action analysis remains essential, especially amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and market noise.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves