British Pound Outlook into UK CPI: GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD
The British pound is flashing bearish signals against USD, AUD and CAD ahead of UK CPI, with soft inflation likely to strengthen downside setups.
Share this:
The British pound is mixed across the majors, but bearish technical signals are forming against USD, AUD and CAD. If today’s UK inflation data undershoots expectations and increases the odds of a Bank of England cut, it could support downside setups in GBP/USD, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG
View related analysis:
View related analysis:
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs US Dollar
The British pound remains in a clear downtrend against the US dollar on the daily chart, with GBP/USD within a potential bearish continuation pattern (rising channel). A bearish divergence has formed on the daily RSI (2) and the RSI (14) remains below 50 to show negative momentum overall.
Prices are holding around the May low (1.3140) for now, which a potential pivotal level over the near term. The 20-day SMA is also capping as resistance.
Should prices initially move higher, bears could seek to fade into moves towards the monthly pivot point (1.3260) near the 200-day SMA (1.3257).
The next major support level for bears to potentially target is the 1.30 handle, near the monthly S1 pivot (1.2990) and November low.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/USD
GBP/CAD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs Canadian Dollar
The British pound remains in a clear downtrend against the US dollar, with GBP/USD trading inside a potential bearish continuation pattern (a rising channel). A bearish divergence has formed on the daily RSI(2), while the RSI(14) remains below 50, keeping momentum negative.
Price is hovering around the May low at 1.3140, which is acting as a short-term pivot. The 20-day EMA continues to cap rallies.
If GBP/USD pushes higher initially, bears may look to fade into moves toward the monthly pivot at 1.3260, aligning with the 200-day EMA at 1.3257.
The next major support zone sits around the 1.30 handle, in line with the monthly S1 pivot at 1.2990 and the November low.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/CAD
GBP/AUD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs Australian Dollar
There are similarities between GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD, although GBP/AUD looks a step behind as it trades near the top of its sideways range.
A double top has formed around the December high (2.03), the monthly pivot (2.031), and just beneath the 200-day EMA. A shooting-star candle and bearish RSI(2) divergence point to a near-term top. The bias favours at least a move towards the range lows around the 2.00 handle. A break beneath 2.00 exposes the February VPOC at 1.9872, close to the monthly S1 pivot at 1.9771.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/AUD
Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)
08:45 — NZD PPI (Q3) (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)
10:50 — JPY Adjusted Trade Balance (USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, JPY/USD)
10:50 — JPY Core Machinery Orders (Sep) (USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, JGB futures)
11:00 — AUD MI Leading Index (Oct) (AUD/USD, ASX 200, AUD/JPY)
11:30 — AUD Wage Price Index (Q3) (AUD/USD, ASX 200, AUD/JPY)
11:55 — USD Fed Logan Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
14:30 — USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (S&P 500, Dow Jones, USD/JPY)
18:00 — GBP Inflation Indicators (Oct) (GBP/USD, FTSE 100, EUR/GBP)
20:30 — GBP House Price Index (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, FTSE 100)
21:00 — EUR CPI Indicators (Oct) (EUR/USD, DAX, EUR/GBP)
22:30 — EUR German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX, EUR/CHF)
23:00 — USD MBA Mortgage Data (S&P 500, US 10yr yields, USD/JPY)
23:00 — CNY FDI (Oct) (USD/CNH, Hang Seng, AUD/USD)
Thursday, November 20, 2025
00:30 — USD Housing & Trade Data (Sep/Aug) (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Dow Jones)
01:15 — USD Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation (USD/JPY, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100)
02:30 — USD GDPNow, Crude Oil & Inventory Data (WTI, Brent, USD/CAD)
04:45 — USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Nasdaq 100)
05:00 — USD 20-Year Bond Auction / Federal Budget Balance (US 10yr yields, S&P 500, USD/JPY)
06:00 — USD FOMC Meeting Minutes / Williams Speaks (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Gold)
View the full economic calendar
View the full economic calendar
-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
How to trade with City Index
You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:
- Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
- Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
- Place the trade
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI
AUD/USD rebounds despite record bearish futures positioning, with Australian Q3 CPI and the Fed meeting threatening to trigger another short squeeze.
EUR/USD weekly outlook: FOMC and ECB to set the tone
The current backdrop is modestly bearish. On Friday, the EUR/USD closed modestly lower, down for the third consecutive day. The pair also posted a weekly decline after staging a modest recovery attempt in the previous week. Out of the past 8 weeks, the EUR/USD has fallen on 6 occasions. There is not much supporting factors for the single currency right now. So, the upside remains capped.
USD/JPY Forecast: Is Rising Japanese Inflation Supporting the Yen?
As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments in the FX market has been the renewed strength of the Japanese yen. This can be seen in the recent performance of USD/JPY, which has fallen nearly 1.0% over the last two trading sessions, highlighting a meaningful recovery in the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.