Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rebound Faces First Major Test
EUR/USD is rebounding from key support, but the recovery now faces its first major test at resistance.
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Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- EUR/USD rebounded after defending a major support zone at the monthly lows.
- The recovery is now approaching the first major resistance hurdle at the yearly moving average.
- Recovery attempts remain vulnerable while below the yearly open- a break below pivotal support needed to mark downtrend resumption.
- Resistance 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1849, 1.1917- Support 1.1578/98 (key), 1.1483, 1.1355/94
EUR/USD is attempting to recover after defending a critical support zone at the monthly lows, with price now approaching the initial resistance. The rebound has improved near-term momentum and eased immediate downside pressure, but the broader outlook remains sensitive to how the pair reacts at this barrier. The focus heading into June is on whether buyers can build on the recovery or if resistance once again caps the advance and reinforces the broader downtrend. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD had, “responded to key resistance at the yearly open with the reversal now approaching initial support. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1578 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” The decline extended deeper the following week with Euro briefly registering an intraday low at 1.1576 before rebounding into the close of the month.
The rally closed the week / month just below the 52-week moving average and the focus is on this recovery heading into the June open. Weekly resistance remains with the yearly open, the 2025 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 high-close at 1.1746/75. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days. Ultimately, a breach / weekly close above the April high at 1.1849 is needed to challenge another run at the yearly highs. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance / the 2025 swing high at 1.1917/19, and the 38.2% retracement of broader the 2008 decline at 1.2020.
Key weekly support remains with the 61.8% retracement of the March advance and the January close low at 1.1578/98. A break / weekly close below this key pivot zone is needed to mark downtrend resumption with subsequent support objectives seen at the 100% extension of the April decline at 1.1483 and the 1.1355/94- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high close, and July swing low. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: A rebound from pivotal support into the close of May and keeps the focus on this recovery early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1578 still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
Keep in mind we get the release of key Eurozone inflation data next week with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly open and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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