Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Five-day Selloff Breaks May Lows—1.16 Now in Focus

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• EUR/USD has broken below the May opening range after five consecutive daily declines.
• Downside momentum is accelerating as price approaches major support near 1.16.
• Short-term exhaustion risk is rising as Euro nears a key technical inflection zone.
• A break below support would threaten a broader extension of the downtrend- while stabilization could fuel recovery within broader downtrend.
• Resistance 1.1667/82, 1.1731/46 (key), 1.1814/26- Support 1.1598-1.1603, 1.1578 (key), 1.1483/97

EUR/USD remains under heavy pressure after breaking below the May opening range, with the pair extending a five-day selloff towards major technical support near the 1.16-handle. The decline reflects accelerating downside momentum following last month’s rejection at key resistance, bringing the focus to a critical zone that could determine whether the move stabilizes or extends into a broader breakdown. While the immediate trend remains bearish, the proximity of key support raises the risk of near-term exhaustion as the selloff deepens. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had, “turned from confluent resistance last week with the pullback now approaching uptrend support. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure lower protective stops on a stretch towards the lower parallel- rallies would need to be limited to 1.1826 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1667 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro rebounded off key support into the close of the month with price carving the May opening just above. A break lower today marks the fifth consecutive daily decline with the losses now extending more than 1.9% off the April high. Near-term support objectives are now in view and the focus and the risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection rises heading into the 1.16-handle.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the April / May highs. Initial support is now in view at the January low close and the 100% extension of the April decline at 1.1598-1.1603 and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement of the March advance at 1.1578. Note that the lower parallel converges on this level over the next few days and losses below this critical zone would threaten downtrend acceleration. The next major technical consideration rests at 1.1483/97- a region defined by the 1.618% extension, the March 2020 & 2022 highs, and the November low-day close (LDC). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial resistance is now eyed at former support near 1.1671/82- a region defined by the March 10 swing high, the 200-day moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the advance off the yearly low. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold into the close of next week. Broader bearish invalidation is now lowered to the objective monthly & yearly opens at 1.1731/46- a topside breach / daily close above this zone would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Key resistance remains at the 1.1813/26 Fibonacci cluster.

Bottom line: Euro has broken the May opening range lows with a five-day decline now approaching initial support at the multi-week downtrend. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 1.16- rallies should be limited to 1.1681 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1587 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Keep in mind the economic calendar is rather light next week with Eurozone PMI data headlining the docket. Stay nimble into these lows and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex