US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Rebound Pressures Resistance—May Range Breakout in Focus
USD is testing the yearly moving average after rebounding from key support. A breakout of the May range could shape the next major move.
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US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade Levels (DXY)
- DXY has rebounded from major support with the May opening range intact just above.
- USD is now testing the 52-week moving average within a broader downtrend structure.
- A breakout above the May range would signal a stronger recovery is underway while failure would keep focus on downside continuation.
- Strong inflation data this week continues to fuel expectations for higher rates from the Fed.
- Resistance ~98.49, 99.49 (key), 100.16/42 - Support 97.50/65 (key), 96.88/98, 95.55
The US Dollar is attempting to recover after defending a major support zone earlier this month, with price now pressing into resistance near the yearly moving average. The rebound has stabilized near-term momentum, but the broader structure remains vulnerable while below major resistance. The focus now shifts to a breakout of the May opening range, for guidance on whether this move evolves into a larger recovery or fades within the broader downtrend. Battle lines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.
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US Dollar Price Chart – USD Weekly (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s US Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that DXY was approaching confluent support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 97.50 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” A rebound the following week briefly registered an intraday high at 99.34 before reversing lower with the index marking a low at key support last week at 97.50/65- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range and the 2025 low-week close (LWC).
The rally has extended 1% off the monthly low with the bulls now checking the 52-week moving average at 98.49. A breach / weekly close above this mark would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger recovery is underway. The next major technical consideration is eyed with the January swing high and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline at 99.49. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Key resistance remains unchanged at the 2026 high-week close (HWC) and the 2024 low / low-week close (LWC) at 100.16/42.
A break / close below 99.50 exposes confluent support at the 2025 & 2026 close lows at 99.88/98. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this level over the next few weeks and weakness beyond this slope would threaten resumption / acceleration of the broader downtrend towards the yearly low at 95.55.
Bottom line: The U.S. Dollar recovery is testing the yearly moving average and the monthly high on this stretch and the focus is on al breakout of the May opening range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the weekly low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above the 52-week moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of retail sales tomorrow for an update on the consumer. Note that interest rate expectations have continued to move on the heels of this week’s hotter than expected CPI & PPI reports, with markets now anticipating the next move from the Federal Reserve will be a hike in early 2027. The shift in the outlook for monetary policy offers a tailwind to the Greenback and if the consumer holds firm, the rate hike odds may continue to rise. Stay nimble until we clear the May range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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