EURUSD, Nasdaq: Rate Cut Bets and NVIDIA Earnings in Focus

Key Events

• Powell’s dovish speech lifts rate cut bets to 87.3%; DXY holds above 97
• Nasdaq tests 23,700 resistance ahead of NVIDIA earnings (Wednesday)
• Core PCE on Friday could reshape confidence in the rate cut narrative

Powell’s dovish tone on Friday pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) down toward 97.60 support, while the Nasdaq climbed back toward the 23,500 resistance. Neither move has yet confirmed a breakout — bearish for DXY or bullish for Nasdaq — keeping markets positioned at key levels and awaiting the next catalyst. For now, the broader trends remain bearish for the dollar and bullish for Nasdaq.

CME Fed Watch Tool: Sep Expectations Hold at 87.3%

(Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)

DXY weakness appears to have priced in a September rate cut, with the 96 support level still technically significant. It aligns with a 17-year trendline, placing attention on whether the dollar can stage a rebound within its dominant bearish structure. Meanwhile, EURUSD remains capped below the 1.18 resistance, which would need to break to open the path toward 2021 highs above 1.20.

NVIDIA Earnings and AI Outlook

On the Nasdaq front, all eyes are on NVIDIA’s Q2 earnings, with expectations for revenue around 45.9B and EPS between 1.00–1.01. While enthusiasm around AI continues to drive tech optimism, concerns remain over tariff risks with China, particularly regarding potential backdoors or tracking technologies in NVIDIA chips. These risks could limit revenue potential from the Chinese market

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

EURUSD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

With the daily RSI holding neutral-to-bullish territory above the 50 level, EURUSD may extend its rally toward 1.1780 and 1.1830 if it clears 1.1740. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 2021 highs between 1.20 and 1.23.

Downside: A pullback below 1.1690 could find support at 1.1670, 1.1640, and 1.1600. A break below 1.16 may trigger deeper losses toward 1.1480 and 1.1380.

Nasdaq Outlook:  Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Nasdaq's rebound from the 22,900 mark appears sustainable, with daily RSI holding above the 50 neutral barrier. A clean hold above 23,700 and 24,100 could pave the way toward new highs at 24,400 and 24,700, in line with continued AI-driven growth.

Downside: A break below 23,200, 22,900, and especially 22,700 would signal broader tech sector weakness, potentially aligning price action with 22,300 and 21,900 support zones.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves