Fed, DXY, Oil, Gold, Equity Indices, Bitcoin Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, bitcoin, and equity indices amid the ongoing war in Iran
• Major event risk on tap: RBA, Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB rate decisions
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, March 23 at 8:30am ET
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Daily (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: The US Dollar Index broke the March opening-range high last week with the rally exhausting just above pivotal resistance into the start of the week at 100.16/34- a region define by the 2024 low, the August high, the November high-close and the 2024 close low. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold.

Initial support rests with the January high-day close (HDC) at 99.38 with bullish invalidation now raised to 98.63/69- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the January advance, the August high-day close (HDC) and the May swing low. Note that channel support converges on this threshold into the close of the week and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway.

A topside breach / close above 100.35 would mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 101.13. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the September 2024 HDC / high pivot zone at 101.77/92- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The US Dollar breakout is vulnerable heading into the Fed on Wednesday. From trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited t 98.63 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above channel resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind the Fed rate decision is slated for Wednesday and while the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, the focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections on growth, inflation, and employment. Traders will be closely eyeing the interest rate dot-plot as higher energy prices fuel concerns over the inflationary outlook. As of now, markets are anticipating the next rate cut to be delivered in September with Fed Fund Futures showing probability of just 52%. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.

 

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Notes: Bitcoin has rallied more than 14.5% off the monthly low with an eight-day rally now testing pivotal resistance at 74,434-76,159- a region define by the 2025 low, the 100% extension of the February advance, and the 2025 low-close. Note that the 38.2% slope of the January pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this level in time. The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.

Initial support rests with the 2026 low-day & low-week closes (LDC / LWC) at 70,283/531 and is backed by the objective monthly open at 66,982. Losses below this level would threaten resumption of the broader downtrend with subsequent support objectives seen at the yearly low-close at 62,795 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 57,885.

A topside breach / daily close above this pivot zone would threaten a larger recovery within the yearly downtrend towards the 2025 low-day close at 79,127. Key resistance / bearish invalidation remains with the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the October decline at 83,712-85,064. A daily close above this region would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: An eight-day rally takes Bitcoin into a critical pivot zone today and the first major test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, the advance is vulnerable while below this threshold – rallies should be limited to 76159 IF price is still heading lower here with a close below the monthly open at 66982 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

 

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex