Markets Rally as Apple Soars, Gold Hits New High

1. US Equities & Markets

• Nasdaq
  • Closed at a record high for the second day in a row on Friday.
  • Driven by tech strength and rate cut optimism.
  • All three major US indexes posted solid weekly gains.
• Apple
  • Shares rose 4.2% Friday, 13.3% weekly — best week since 2020.
  • Boosted by Trump’s announcement of $100B additional investment, total US commitment now $600B over four years.
• Sector Performance
  • Tech and Communications led; both closed at record highs.
  • Gilead Sciences jumped 8.3% on raised full-year outlook.
  • Real Estate, Utilities, Industrials lagged.
• Rate Cut Expectations
  • Softer economic data reinforces dovish outlook.
  • Markets now price in a 90% chance of a September Fed rate cut.
  • Trump named CEA Chair Miran as interim Fed governor (replacing Kugler).

2. Global Equity Markets

• Japan
  • Nikkei futures hit 42,380, nearing all-time high (42,426) despite a holiday.
  • Nikkei PE ratio at 19, vs 22 for S&P 500 and 33 for Nasdaq (premium driven by AI exposure).

3. AI Chip Export Policy

• NVIDIA & AMD
  • Both agreed to give the US government 15% of China AI chip revenue in exchange for export licenses.
  • US licensed NVIDIA after CEO Huang met Trump.
  • Could dampen market sentiment and impact margins.
• China's Position
  • Wants US export restrictions relaxed as part of trade talks.

4. Commodities

• Gold
  • Hit record high of $3,534/oz (Dec contract) on COMEX.
  • Triggered by US Customs decision to impose tariffs on semi-processed gold bars.
  • Switzerland most affected — major source of re-melted bars.
  • US signaled tariffs may not be enforced, calming market concerns.
• Crude Oil
  • Futures remained subdued after prior declines.
  • Market awaiting outcome of Trump-Putin meeting on Friday.
• Copper
  • Traded indecisively amid mixed inflation data from China.

5. Crypto

• Bitcoin
  • Climbed to just below $122K, before paring gains.
  • Part of a broader crypto rally.
  • Ethereum broke through quadruple top and gaining momentum.

6. Central Bank & Economic Policy

• Fed’s Bowman
  • Core PCE inflation may be closer to 2% target than data shows.
  • Three rate cuts still forecasted for 2025.
  • Warns of delayed action leading to labour market damage.
• Fed Chair Search
  • Trump team expands shortlist: includes James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin (ex-Bush adviser).
  • E.J. Antoni under consideration to lead Bureau of Labor Statistics.

7. Geopolitics & Trade

• Trump-Putin Meeting
  • Confirmed for August 15th.
  • Follow-up to envoy Witkoff’s prior diplomatic success.
• Trump on China Soybeans
  • Called on China to quadruple soybean orders.
  • Claims US farmers offer the “most robust soybeans”.
• Trump on Marijuana
  • Administration considering reclassifying marijuana as less dangerous, potentially opening marijuana companies to banking system and amplifying margin of entry.
• DC Security
  • National Guard activation expected; final role/number pending.

8. Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• US Diplomacy
  • VP Vance: US coordinating Zelensky-Putin meeting timing.
  • Trump considering tariffs on China for buying Russian oil.
• Putin’s Demands
  • Ukraine must cede Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea for ceasefire.
  • Requests full Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Donetsk.

9. Middle East

• Israel-Gaza Conflict
  • Netanyahu says Israel will “complete the job” against Hamas.
  • Gaza offensive focuses on two final Hamas strongholds.
  • Netanyahu discussed plan with President Trump.
• Qatar Mediation
  • US envoy Witkoff met with Qatar’s PM to discuss hostage release and conflict resolution.
• Australia & Palestine
  • Australia to recognize Palestine at UN in Sept, conditional on PA commitments.
  • PM Albanese criticizes Israel’s actions and hints at further regional recognition.
  • New Zealand also considering formal recognition.
• Iran & Syria
  • IAEA official to visit Iran to plan nuclear cooperation framework.
  • Jordan to host trilateral meeting (Jordan-Syria-US) on Syria’s rebuilding.

10. Key Data Releases – August 12, 2025 (CET)

Time	Country	Indicator	Prior	Forecast
06:30	AUD	RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	3.60%	3.85%
11:00	EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug)	-63.0	-59.5
11:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)	39.7	52.7
14:30	USD	CPI (MoM) (July)	0.2%	0.3%
14:30	USD	CPI (YoY) (July)	2.8%	2.7%

11. DAX Technical Analysis – 4 hour chart

The Germany 40 (DAX) is showing renewed bullish momentum following a sharp rebound from its recent lows near 23,300. The index had previously broken down from a rising wedge pattern, triggering a deep selloff, but has since regained its footing with a strong series of green candles. This rally is now pushing price back above key EMAs (20/50/100/200), with all of them converging around 24,000–24,050, reinforcing the importance of this zone as a support-turning-resistance. The RSI is trending upward toward 60, while the Stoch RSI is nearing overbought levels, suggesting momentum remains on the side of the bulls in the short term.

However, there are signs of caution to consider. Price is still within a broader descending triangle, capped by a descending resistance trendline connecting the July and early August highs. Until the DAX breaks cleanly above 24,400–24,500, the overall structure remains vulnerable to another swing lower. That said, given the strength of the bounce and the reclaiming of moving averages, the bias leans slightly bullish, with a potential upside retest of the upper range likely — especially if macro sentiment remains supportive. A failure to hold 24,000 could invalidate this recovery and put pressure back on the 23,600–23,700 area.