Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ approaches record highs ahead of the Fed & Mag 7 earnings

US futures                                            

Dow futures -0.04%, S&P futures 0.38%  & Nasdaq futures 0.79%

In Europe                                                                           

FTSE -0.30% & DAX -0.40%

• S&P500 & Nasdaq close in on record highs
• Fed rate decision, META, MSFT & TSLA earnings in focus
• USD falls to a 4-year low after Trump’s comments
• Oil jumps on USD weakness, geopolitical worries

US stocks at key levels ahead of the Fed, USD at 4-year low

U.S. stocks opened broadly higher, with tech leading the gains, as investors await the Magnificent 7 earnings and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later today.

The S&P 500 is testing the 7000 milestone, and the Nasdaq is also reaching record highs, driven by the weaker U.S. dollar.

Attention is on the FOMC rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. As this is priced in, the focus is on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for further clues on the timing of additional rate cuts.

However, with U.S. data broadly holding up and signs that the weakening in the jobs market may be slowing, the Fed may signal a more cautious stance on future rate cuts. A hawkish hold could pull stock and gold lower and stem the slide in the USD, at least for now.

Gold reached a fresh record high above 5,300 today, and silver was $216.00 per oz, they said, due to a weaker dollar, geopolitical worries, and higher prices—a demonstration of safe haven demand.

Additionally, the market is also waiting to see who Donald Trump will pick for the next Fed chair. With four candidates remaining, the next replacement for Fed chair Powell is expected to be more dovish.

Corporate news

Big tech is in focus ahead of earnings after the close from Meta and Microsoft. Attention will be very much focused on AI spending amid ongoing questions about the payoffs from these massive capex. Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are expected to increase their AI spending by 30% to more than $500 billion this year, which is likely to sharpen investor scrutiny. Both Meta and Microsoft declined by 6% over the last three months of 2025 amid questions about the AI trade.

Tesla is also due to report after the close. Expectations are for Q4 earnings to decline as EV deliveries fell 15% for the quarter, but investors will focus on the robotaxi rollout, full self-driving subscriptions, and the optimistic robot timeline.

AT&T is rising 3% after the telecom giant posted annual profits above forecasts and expects its wireless and fibre network expansion to accommodate 5G and high-speed Internet demand

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq has broken out of its range above 25,850, probing record highs. Buyers supported by momentum will look to rise above 26,250 to fresh record highs. With blue skies above, bulls will look toward 22,500 as the next logical target. Support is seen at 25,850. A break below here takes the price back into a familiar range. A break below 25,200 support could see sellers gain traction.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD jumps

The USD is steadying after falling to a four-year low and is still set for its largest weekly decline since April, after President Trump said he thought the dollar's value was great when asked whether it had declined too much. Traders took this as a signal to sell more U.S. dollars ahead of the Fed policy rate decision later today.

USD/JPY is rising after falling 4% in just three sessions, driven by U.S. dollar weakness and concerns of coordinated Fed intervention to support the yen. A fed rate check on Friday had a significant effect on keeping yen bears at bay, with the Japanese currency now trading at levels last seen in mid-October.

EUR/USD is rising, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar rising to 1.20, a level last seen in 2021. The move is primarily driven by U.S. dollar weakness, but it also complicates the ECB's position. ECB policymaker Martin Kocher warned that further euro strength could prompt central banks to resume interest rate cuts.

Oil jumps on a weaker USD & elevated geopolitical tensions

Oil prices have risen to the highest level since late September following a winter storm which disrupted US crude oil output. US-Iranian geopolitical tensions remain high, and the dollar has fallen to a near 4-year low, adding support.

A weaker U.S. dollar makes USD-denominated commodities, such as oil, cheaper for buyers using foreign currencies.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, exports of crude oil from US Gulf Coast ports fell to 0 on Sunday before recovering on Monday following a massive winter storm that hit production.

The risk premium on oil is also rising after a US aircraft carrier warship has arrived in the Middle East, adding to President Trump's ability for military action against Iran. This raises concerns of supply disruption from OPEC's fourth-largest producer.