Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ hits a record high, Netflix falls despite beat

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.18%, S&P futures 0.11%  & Nasdaq futures 0.03%

In Europe

FTSE 0.02% & DAX -0.24%

• US stocks edge to fresh record highs
• Netflix beats but fails to spark a rally
• Oil rises after the EU applies more sanctions to Russia

Stocks at record levels, Netflix falls

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at fresh record highs on Thursday, setting the stage for a more muted start on Friday amid mixed economic signals and following Netflix's profits, which failed to ignite excitement.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have ground higher over the past week, thanks to upbeat retail sales and jobless claims, which gives the Federal Reserve room to pause and wait to see the potential impact of tariffs on inflation. However, a spike in inflation earlier in the week and uncertainty surrounding the looming August 1 trade tariff deadline are limiting the upside.

Adding to the mixed picture, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that he could consider cutting interest rates as soon as July. This is in contrast to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who had said he's keen to wait and see the impact of tariffs on the economy.

Adding to jitters in the market, reports suggest that Trump could fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, potentially sending the markets into a wobble earlier this week. However, Trump was quick to deny these reports.

The markets currently see a 57.9% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

Attention is now turning to consumer sentiment data, which is due later in the day.

Corporate news

Netflix is falling despite its Q2 earnings beating expectations and lifting its full-year revenue outlook. Revenue rose 17% to $11.08 billion year over year, and earnings came in at $7.19, topping forecasts of $7.03. Netflix warns that the operating margin in Q2 2025 will be lower than in the first half, due to higher content amortization as well as sales and marketing costs. However, the bar was set high, and given Netflix's lofty valuation, there was little room for error on the share prices falling 4% ahead of the open

3M and the industrial stock are up 2%  after posting Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.16 per share, ahead of the $2.01 per share forecast. Revenue was $16.16 billion, ahead of forecasts of $16.11 billion.

American Express is rising 1% after Q2 earnings beat forecasts on both the top and bottom line. It posted EPS of $4.08 on $17.86 billion in revenue, ahead of the $3.89 on $17.71 billion in revenue.

Crypto stocks are rising, tracking crypto prices higher after Congress passed the first major crypto legislation for the US. Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood are all trading higher.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq has risen to fresh record highs above 23k. The RSI is overbought, so buyers should be wary. 23,500 is the next logical level. Immediate support is at 22,700, the rising trendline support, with a break below exposing 22,500, the round number, and 22.245, the March record high. A break below 22k negates the near-term uptrend.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is falling, giving back yesterday’s gains after dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller and as the circus over whether Trump will fire Powell continues. US consumer confidence data, released later today, is in focus.

The EUR/USD is rising despite German PPI data falling to its lowest level in nine months. PPI fell 1.3% marking the fourth straight monthly decline. The data comes ahead of the ECB meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2%.

The GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker U.S. dollar and a positive shift in market sentiment. The power is on track to reach 0.2% across the week, marking the third consecutive week of losses, despite data showing that UK unemployment rose to its highest level in four years and inflation ticked up to 3.6%.

Oil rises after the EU applied more sanctions to Russia

Oil prices rose for a second straight day after the EU agreed on an 18th sanction package against Russia over its war in Ukraine, which includes measures aimed at limiting Russia's oil and energy industries.

The latest sanction package will lower the G7's price cap for buying Russian crude oil to $47.60 a barrel. However, the US has not backed Europe on these latest sanctions, which could leave the EU with limited power to enforce them.

Investors are also waiting for developments from the US on further potential sanctions after Trump threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal on Ukraine in 50 days.