Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Take Another Run at Yearly Highs

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF has rallied nearly 2.8% from the August low, with the pair attempting a third consecutive weekly advance.
• The recovery is approaching a major resistance confluence near the yearly highs, where bulls will need follow-through to extend the advance.
• A sustained breach higher would strengthen the case for another major leg higher, while failure to clear resistance would leave the pair vulnerable to another pullback.
• The Fed rate decision headlines next week’s event risk, with markets now assigning a high probability to another rate hike.
• Resistance 8200/15 (key), 8333, 8407/16– Support 8083-8103 (key), 8009, ~7953

USD/CHF is back on the offensive after rebounding sharply from the August lows, putting the yearly highs back within striking distance. The three-week recovery has kept the broader bullish outlook intact, but buyers are now approaching the same resistance zone that capped the advance last month. With the Fed rate decision on tap next week, the focus is on whether bulls can finally clear this hurdle and open the door to a larger advance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF had reversed from uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch, with a breach above 8215 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/CHF fell more than 3.1% off those highs with price registering an intraweek low at 7950 before rebounding sharply (close low registered at 8012). The subsequent recovery has now extended nearly 2.8% with a three-week rally now approaching pivotal resistance near the yearly highs ahead of the Fed next week.

Key resistance is eyed at 8200/15- a region defined by the 100% extension of the January advance, the yearly high, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the 2024 swing low at 8332. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 2024 low close, the 2023 low-week close (LWC), and the 2024 yearly open at 8407/16.

Initial support rests with the monthly open and the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8083-8103. This level has been a major pivot zone in USD/CHF since last year. Subsequent support rests with the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009 with broader bullish invalidation at the 200-day moving average, currently near ~7953. Note that the lower parallel of the yearly uptrend converges on this level over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is approaching major lateral resistance with major event risk on tap next week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the monthly open at 8083 with a breach / close above 8215 needed to mark uptrend resumption and fuel the next leg higher.

The focus next week shifts squarely to the Federal Reserve rate decision, with expectations for additional tightening continuing to build following today’s CPI release. Headline inflation was largely in line with expectations, although the monthly core reading came in slightly firmer, helping push Fed funds futures to price roughly an 87% probability of a rate hike next week. With a move increasingly anticipated, attention will likely center on Chair Warsh’s commentary and any guidance on the policy path into year-end. A more hawkish outlook could reinforce support for the U.S. dollar, while any pushback against further tightening could challenge the recent USD advance. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for directional guide. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex