Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF High-Stakes Breakout in View Heading into Fed & SNB

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF November rally falters at the upper bounds of a multi-month range
• Breakout risk in focus into the close of the year- FOMC & SNB rate decisions on tap next week
• Resistance 8103, 8153 (key), 8354-8416 – Support 7934/42, 7882 (key), 7769

The Swiss Franc is on the offensive for a second week with USD/CHF falling nearly 1.4% from last month’s high. The November rally failed at the upper bounds of a five-month range in price and the focus is on a potential breakout into the close of the year. Event risk ramps up next week with both the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank interest rate decisions on tap, and traders should be prepared for elevated volatility as the market responds to this high-stakes technical threshold. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF had, “responded to lateral support for the fourth time this year and the immediate decline remains vulnerable while above this pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- the focus is on a breakout of the 7882-8103 range for guidance with a weekly close below needed to mark downtrend resumption.” USD/CHF rebounded sharply the following week with price rallying more than 2.8% off the low. The advance was halted at resistance and keeps the multi-month range intact heading into December.

Weekly resistance remains with the 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 decline at 8103 and is backed by the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 8153. Note that the median-line converges on this level into the close do the year and a breach / weekly close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low in place and that a lager trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 8354-84416- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement, the 2024 low, the 2023 low-week close, and the 2024 yearly open.

Initial weekly support rests at 7934/42- a region defined by the 2025 weekly close low and the 61.8% retracement of the September advance. Ultimately a break / weekly close below the range low at the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 7882 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 2011 low week close (LWC) at 7769, the 2011 low close at 7669, and the 78.6% retracement of the 2012 advance at 7537.

 

Bottom line: USD/CHF exhausted into the upper bounds of a multi-month range in November, and the focus remains on a potential breakout into the close of the year. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 7934 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8153 needed to validate a larger reversal in trend.

Keep in mind we get the release of the September Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) tomorrow with the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank interest rate decisions on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex