ASX 200 Eyes 9,000 as Bulls Defend Dips Ahead, RBA Mins In Focus
ASX 200 rallies 22% from April low, breaks to record highs. Bulls now eye 9,000 as RBA minutes and soft jobs data fuel rate cut expectations.
Share this:
The ASX 200 surged to record highs last week, rallying more than 22% from its April low as soft Australian employment data helped revive RBA rate cut expectations. While prices have pulled back slightly, the broader trend remains bullish—and bulls may be eyeing the 9,000 milestone if sentiment permits. Here’s a technical breakdown of the ASX SPI 200 Index Futures.
View related analysis:
View related analysis:
ASX 200 Rally Pauses After Breakout, but Bulls Still Eye 9,000
The ASX 200 has rallied more than 22% from its April low to last week’s high, with bullish momentum reinforced by Australia’s higher unemployment rate of 4.3%—a level soft enough to justify potential RBA rate cuts without triggering full-blown recession fears. That narrative helped drive a strong bullish range expansion candle through the tight consolidation zone near the February high.
While the index has since pulled back from record highs, the underlying strength of the uptrend suggests many bulls are likely treating the dip as a buying opportunity. And should sentiment permit, the ASX 200 could be eyeing a move to 9,000 sooner rather than later.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures
ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart
A bearish inside day formed on Monday as prices pulled back towards the February high. While a multi-week bearish divergence has developed on the daily RSI (14), the breakout to new highs suggests it may be a false signal.
If the ASX 200 retraces further, bulls may look to buy dips towards the high-volume node (HVN) at 8,536 and maintain a bullish bias while prices remain above 8,500. A break above last week’s high would confirm bullish continuation, potentially setting up a run towards the 9,000 mark.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures
Key Economic Events for Traders (AEST / GMT+10)
08:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM, YoY), Exports & Imports (Jun) (NZD/USD, NZD/JPY)
11:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD/USD, ASX 200)
15:00 EUR Finnish Unemployment Rate (Jun) (EUR/USD, DAX)
16:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, Net Cash Requirement (Jun) (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
18:00 EUR Greek Current Account (YoY), ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR/USD, DAX)
19:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
22:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil)
22:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (USD, S&P 500)00:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index, Shipments, Services (Jul) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX)
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Magnificent Seven Earnings Preview: Is the AI Boom Facing Its Biggest Test Yet?
After a wobble in the broader AI trade, the Magnificent Seven" stocks are reporting earnings in the coming week - see the key themes and Nasdaq 100 levels to watch!
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Tech stocks not out of woods yet
US index futures pushed higher in the first half of Friday’s session, taking cues from a strong performance from European equities. Both European and US equity futures extending yesterday’s impressive recovery after the sharp sell-off earlier in the week. But the lingering concerns around the AI investment cycle remain, while bond markets were easing lower again, lifting yields.
ASX 200 Outlook: A Rates Trade Disguised as a Stock Market?
Australian bond futures have exhibited a far stronger relationship with the ASX 200 than Wall Street over recent months. Now both markets are displaying remarkably similar price structures.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.