News & analysis

The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.

The final stretch of 2026 is approaching, and North America's major currencies have begun to show a shift in the strength dynamics seen earlier in the year. New expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly in the United States, could be significantly reshaping the outlook for the region. At the same time, this backdrop, combined with potential trade tensions across North America, may become one of the most important drivers of currency performance in the months ahead.

The outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 is turning cautiously optimistic on the back of renewed ETF purchases, compelling valuations, and an improvement in buy-and-hold behavior among investors - see the full analysis!

Surging yields and higher rate hike odds present a new wrinkle for markets, and this has softened the trend in gold. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has retained strong bullish structure and continues to show a brighter backdrop than XAU/USD.

USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk builds.

Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are both on the front foot as elevated energy costs feed Fed warnings that inflation may prove sticky.

US and global equity markets have extended Wednesday’s sell-off, with Wall Street opening lower after a weak handover from Asia and Europe. The deterioration in risk appetite has been spreading across global markets. The dollar was firmer, Treasury yields were holding onto yesterday’s gains, while gold, silver and bitcoin were all under pressure alongside equities and major currencies.

U.S. stocks are falling, further extending losses from the previous session, as oil prices move higher alongside Treasury yields and caution reigns ahead of the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

GBP/USD and the Dow test key support levels as rising Treasury yields, Fed rate-hike expectations and oversold momentum increase reversal risks.

Gold prices have been falling in the last few days after last week’s post-FOMC pop faded amid rising interest rate expectations, higher oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. As before, I wasn’t convinced gold would thrive in the current macro backdrop.

Oil recovers above $90 amid a lack of progress in US-Iran diplomacy. USD/JPY rises to 158 on widening Fed-BoJ policy outlook.

Stronger US growth momentum and rising Treasury yields are keeping USD/JPY pointed higher, even as Japanese policymakers try to limit the pressure building across domestic markets.