AUD/USD Rebounds Even as Trump Tariffs Go into Effect for China
AUD/USD attempts to extend the advance from the start of the week even as President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on China.
Share this:
Australia Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD may consolidate over the coming days as it bounces back from a fresh weekly low (0.6187), but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the rebound from the February low (0.6088) as it no longer trades within an ascending channel.
AUD/USD Rebounds Even as Trump Tariffs Go into Effect for China
AUD/USD attempts to extend the advance from the start of the week even as President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on China, Australia’s largest trading partner, and it remains to be seen if the transition in US trade policy will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as ‘members expressed caution about the prospect of further policy easing.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
It seems as though the RBA will gradually switch gears after implementing its first rate-cut since 2020 as ‘returning inflation to target remains the Board’s highest priority,’ but the weakening outlook for global growth may push Governor Michele Bullock and Co. to further unwind its restrictive policy as ‘economic outcomes had given members more confidence that they could return inflation to target at the same time as preserving most of the gains in the labour market with a lower cash rate.’
In turn, the threat of a trade war may continue to sway foreign exchange markets as China applies fresh tariffs on US exports, and the Australian Dollar may face headwinds ahead of the next RBA meeting on April 1 amid speculation for lower interest rates.
With that said, AUD/USD may struggle to retain the advance from the start of the week as it no longer trades within the ascending channel from earlier this year, but the exchange rate may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6259) should it continue to hold above the February low (0.6088).
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD attempts to extend the advance from the start of the week after registering a fresh weekly low (0.6187), with a close above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone bringing 0.6318 (November 2023 low) on the radar.
- Next area of interest coming in around the February high (0.6409), but the rebound from the weekly low (0.6187) may turn out to be temporary as AUD/USD no longer traders within an ascending channel.
- Lack of momentum to close above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone may push AUD/USD towards the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the February low (0.6088).
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Eyes December High as Ascending Channel Remains Intact
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rally Persists with Trump Tariffs on Track
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Vulnerable to ECB Rate Cut
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Rebound Retrained by Slowdown in US PCE
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
RBA rate hike bets surge as Australian inflation heats up
Australia's inflation problem extends well beyond energy, with markets now pricing further RBA hikes into 2027. So why has AUD/USD reversed sharply after its initial surge?
AUD/USD Analysis: Australian Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of Inflation Data and the Fed
As the trading week progresses, a cautious tone is becoming increasingly evident around the Australian dollar. This can be observed in the recent performance of AUD/USD, where price action has remained largely unchanged over the last three trading sessions, recording a move of barely 0.1%. This behavior highlights a clear lack of direction within the market.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD face explosive CPI, RBNZ doubleheader
Aussie and Kiwi have gone remarkably quiet ahead of Australian inflation data and RBNZ decision. With substantial tightening priced and both events capable of generating major FX swings, Wednesday could deliver a volatility eruption in the antipodes.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.