British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Emerge
British Pound rallied more than 2.1% off the November low with the GBP/USD now testing pivotal resistance. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD technical charts.
Share this:
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels
- British Pound marks false break at downtrend support- threatens larger correction
- GBP/USD approaching initial trend resistance- weekly opening-range breakout imminent
- Resistance 1.2731/73, 1.2820s, 1.2849/80 (key)- Support 1.2571-1.2613 (key), 1.2487, 1.2423
The British Pound rallied more than 2.1% off the November low with GBP/USD now approaching initial resistance into the September downtrend. The weekly opening-range is set heading into tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll report and the focus is on a potential breakout in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Short-term Outlook, we noted that GBP/USD was, “approaching a major support pivot and while a break of the monthly opening-range keeps the focus lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable into this zone. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the 1.26-handle.” Sterling briefly broke below support to register an intraday low at 1.2487 before rebounding more than 2.1% into the close of the month.
The advance has been testing resistance for the past two weeks at 1.2731/73- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, and the February 2019 swing low. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days and a breach / close above is needed to threaten a larger correction. Looking for possible price infection here.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD testing resistance ahead of the US open at the weekly open / weekly opening-range highs. A topside breach here would expose the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.2820) and a more significant technical confluence at 1.2849/80- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the September decline, the March high-day close (HDC), and the 100% extension of the recent advance. Look for a lager reaction there IF reached with breach / close above needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger trend reversal is underway.
Key support remains unchanged at the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 October rally /June & July lows at 1.2571-1.2613- a break below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption towards subsequent support objectives at 1.2487 and the 2022 December HDC at 1.2423 (an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).
Bottom line: A false break of downtrend resistance is threatening a larger recovery in GBP/USD. For now, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the broader September downtrend vulnerable while above 1.2571. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.2880 for the multi-month downtrend to remain viable.
Keep in mind US non-farm payrolls are on tap tomorrow with the monthly opening-range now taking shape just above support. Stay nimble into the release a watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Bulls Eye Resistance Ahead of NFP
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Coils into Support
- Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Threatens Bear Market Rebound
- Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Recovery Eyes Pivotal Resistance
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Trump Rally Unravels
- Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bears Charge Uptrend Support
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Relent at Resistance
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
Silver forecast: metals liquidation drags XAG/USD into $50-55 support
Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Support Reversal Sparks Monthly Range Breakout 10 23 2026
A sharp reversal off key support has fueled the AUD/USD recovery, with resistance now in focus ahead of next week’s Fed decision and Australian CPI.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.