Crude Oil Update: WTI Maintains a Bullish Bias and Attempts to Revisit $100

At the start of the trading session, WTI crude posted a gain of more than 7.7%, bringing price action once again close to the $100 per barrel level in the short term.

The renewed buying pressure is mainly driven by fresh updates from the Middle East conflict, which continue to raise concerns about global supply dynamics. As long as this risk bias remains in place, it could translate into sustained buying pressure that continues to drive oil price movements in the coming sessions.

The Conflict Shows No Signs of Ending

Now entering day 13 of the conflict in the Middle East, concerns about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have become increasingly evident in the short term, as more than 20% of global oil supply transits through this route.

Although the United States has mentioned the release of strategic crude reserves, totaling approximately 172 million barrels, the process could take at least 120 days, which is being perceived as a temporary rather than structural solution to the supply dynamics that could impact 2026.

In fact, the International Energy Agency has stated that this represents one of the largest supply disruptions in recent oil market history and that it may take considerable time before operations return to pre-conflict levels. This has raised doubts as to whether reserve releases will be sufficient to mitigate the short-term supply impact.

Under this scenario, activity in the oil market does not appear to be slowing. Looking at flows in the United States Oil Fund ETF, there has been consistent capital inflow since March 5, and on March 10 alone, flows exceeded $250 million, demonstrating that demand has not yet been exhausted and that activity remains strong, particularly in the absence of expectations for a rapid conflict resolution.

Source: ETFDB

Given this backdrop, the main catalyst behind oil’s recent strength continues to be the Middle East conflict and the potential disruption of global crude supply. Unless a short-term agreement is reached or consistent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occurs, the market is likely to remain under upward pressure, with demand continuing to influence WTI price movements in the coming sessions.

 

Is Higher Volatility Expected?

The OVX index, which measures implied volatility in options on oil ETFs, serves as a benchmark for market movement expectations. Currently, OVX continues to rise and, based on data as of March 11, stands near 120 points, a level not observed in several years. This reflects a significant increase in implied volatility expectations for the next 30 days.

Source: Macromicro

The steady increase in OVX suggests that the market is preparing for aggressive price movements in crude oil in the short term. This may increase the geopolitical risk premium and generate stronger demand for hedging among institutional investors.

While this environment may support further price advances, it also implies elevated risk, which could lead to sharp declines if sentiment shifts abruptly. Therefore, as long as OVX remains at elevated levels, a more pronounced indecision bias could develop in WTI price action over the coming sessions.

 

Technical Outlook for WTI

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Aggressive Trend Attempts to Hold: Recent sessions have marked a significant shift in WTI’s short-term dynamics, as bullish momentum has been dominant and has given rise to the potential formation of a more aggressive upward trendline. This reinforces the idea of short-term buying dominance. However, it is important to consider that this trendline may not remain fully stable in the coming sessions. The recent overextension in buying pressure could also open the door for short-term corrective pullbacks.
   
• RSI: The RSI remains above the 70 level, which corresponds to overbought territory. This indicates a possible imbalance in price momentum due to excessive buying pressure. As long as this behavior persists, room may remain for corrective downside moves in the coming sessions.
   
• ADX: The ADX line remains at elevated levels, reflecting that average volatility over the past 14 sessions has been significant. If the indicator continues to rise, it could reinforce the probability of aggressive price movements, maintaining a high-volatility environment.
   

Key Levels:

• $100 – Key Resistance: A major psychological level in current price movements. Sustained moves above this level could reinforce buying dominance and extend the aggressive upward trend in the coming sessions.
   
• $84 – Near-Term Barrier: Corresponds to the most recent short-term support level and may act as a reference point for potential corrective pullbacks.
   
• $76 – Key Support: Level corresponding to the most relevant recent lows and the main bearish barrier to monitor. Moves toward this area could invalidate the current aggressive trend formation and give way to a more consistent phase of indecision in crude oil prices.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him on: @julianpineda25