EUR/USD Under Pressure After Failing to Test Monthly High

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD

EUR/USD is under pressure after failing to test the monthly high (1.1730), but the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium may influence the near-term outlook for the exchange rate amid the dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

EUR/USD Under Pressure After Failing to Test Monthly High

EUR/USD falls to a fresh weekly low (1.1601) as it establishes a series of lower highs and lows, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low (1.1392) should the bearish price action persist.

US Economic Calendar

Looking ahead, the Fed Symposium may sway foreign exchange markets following the 9-2 split at the July meeting, and the dissent within the FOMC may carry into the September meeting as the central bank continues to combat inflation.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

In turn, the speech from Chairman Jerome Powell may keep EUR/USD under pressure if the prepared remarks show a greater willingness to keep US interest rates higher for longer, but a slew of dovish remarks may produce headwinds for the US Dollar as it fuels speculation for an imminent rate-cut.

With that said, EUR/USD may reestablish the bullish trend from earlier this year as the Fed appears to be on course to further unwind its restrictive policy, but the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the monthly low (1.1392) should Chairman Powell tames expectations for lower US interest rates.

EUR/USD Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView  

• EUR/USD pulls back ahead of the monthly high (1.1730) to establish a series of lower highs and lows, and lack of momentum to hold above 1.1560 (100% Fibonacci extension) may push the exchange rate toward the monthly low (1.1392).
• A move/close below the 1.1390 (78/6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1440 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) brings the June low (1.1347) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.1260 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
• Need a move/close above the 1.1690 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1750 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone to bring the July high (1.1830) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the September 2021 high (1.1909).

Additional Market Outlooks

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches Monthly Low

Gold Price Falls Toward Monthly Low Ahead of Fed Symposium

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rises amid Slowing Canada Inflation

GBP/USD Recovery Curbs Threat of Head-and-Shoulders Formation

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong