Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Breaks Uptrend- Correction Looms

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Euro breaks below yearly uptrend, signaling potential for a larger correction
• EUR/USD now off nearly 1.9% from the highs- remains vulnerable into NFPs / monthly cross
• Resistance 1.1775, 1.1917-1.2020 (key), 1.2217- Support 1.1586/93, 1.1497 (key), 1.1394

The Euro broke below the yearly uptrend this week with the post-FOMC reversal in EUR/USD now off nearly 1.9% from multi-year highs. The threat for a deeper correction remains heading into October with key U.S. employment data on tap next week. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was, “in consolidation just below resistance with monthly opening-range in focus- look for a breakout of the 1.1586-1.1775 range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1497 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this range needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” A topside breach last week into the FOMC rallied into key technical resistance at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 before reversing sharply to close back below the June high-close at 1.1775.

Euro slipped below the channel support this week with price falling nearly 2.3% off the highs before a mild recovery into the close. The break leaves the risk weighted to the downside into the close of the month while below 1.1775. Initial support objectives rest with the July low-week close (LWC) / 61.8% retracement of the July rally at 1.1586/93 and is backed by the March 2020 / 2022 high at 1.1497- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold next week and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the April high close at 1.1394 and 1.1253/76- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 2023 swing high. Look for a larger reaction in price there IF reached.

A pivot back above channel support / 1.1775 would still have to contend with a key resistance zone that extends into the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline at 1.2020- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the 2021 high-week close (HWC) at 1.2217.

Bottom line: Euro broke below yearly channel support this week and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1775 IF price is heading for a deeper correction here- look for a larger reaction / possible price inflection into 1.1497 for guidance IF reached.

Keep in mind we are heading into the monthly cross next week with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. Stay nimble into the October open and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex