Oil Price Forecast: WTI Plunges Toward Support– Make or Break Ahead

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• Oil prices rebound 5% off monthly low- fails at downtrend resistance post-Fed
• WTI posts three-day decline into weekly close- risk for exhaustion / price infection at key support
• Resistance 63.97, 65.62/97 (key), ~67.03/07 - Support 61.45-62.05 (key), 58.19/46, 56.84/21

Crude oil prices plummeted 3.3% off the weekly highs with the post-FOMC sell-off now approaching critical support. The September range is preserved within the broader July downtrend and we’re looking for a breakout in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that WTI was testing a critical support zone and that, “From at trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 66.31 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 61.45 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Crude prices rebounded 6.8% off those lows to register an intraweek high at 66.01 into the open of September. An outside-week reversal slammed back into support early in the month and the focus is on a breakout of the September opening-range, which is now defined by that single-week candle.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the daily chart shows WTI trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the late July high with this week’s rally failing into the 75% parallel for the fifth time this month.

Price is now testing the median-line with key support steady at 61.45/62.05- a region defined by the 2025 low-week close (LWC), the July low, the September low-day close (LDC), and the 61.8% extension of the June decline. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses / resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at the April close low / 2025 weekly low close at 58.19/46 with the next major technical consideration seen at the yearly low close / 100% extension at 56.83-57.21- area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI continuing to trade within the objective weekly opening-range (62.50-64.74), just above support. Initial resistance eyed with the September open at 63.97 and is backed by 65.62/97- a region defined by the 2020 swing high and the 50% retracement of the late-July decline. We’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation level with a breach / daily close above needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% retracement / 200-day moving average at ~67.03/06 and the 38.2% retracement of the broader June decline at 67.63.

Bottom line: The September opening-range is preserved just above key technical support within the July downtrend- look for the break in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 65.97 IF price is indeed heading lower on this stretch with a close below 61.45 needed to mark resumption of the multi-month downtrend in Oil.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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