Oil Price Forecast: WTI Spills into Key Support

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• Oil prices plunge more than 20% off June high- now testing key pivot at trend support
• WTI risk for exhaustion / price infection ahead- Trump / Putin Summit on tap
• Resistance 65.62-66.31, 67.75/93 (key), 71.64/90- Support 61.45-62.70 (key), 56.83-57.21, 54.36/48

Crude oil prices plummeted into key support this week with WTI now off more than 20% from the June highs. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside the immediate decline may be vulnerable here and we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection off this mark for guidance in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that WTI had reversed off yearly downtrend resistance, and that rallies should be limited to the yearly open IF price was heading lower. A late-month rally stretched nearly 9% off the July lows but exhausted well ahead of the yearly open into the close of July. The subsequent decline has extended more than 12% off the July high with WTI testing a critical support pivot this week at 64.45-62.70- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC), the 61.8% extension of the June decline, and the objective 2025 low-day close (LDC). We’re looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead with a close below needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the WTI daily chart highlights a steep seven-day decline off the July highs with price trading within the confines of a modified pitchfork extending off the June high. Note that the median-line converges on the 61.45-62.70 support zone over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of threshold. The immediate short-bias is vulnerable while above.

Initial resistance is eyed with the 75% parallel and is backed by 65.62-66.31- a region defined by the 2020 high, the 23.6% retracement of the June decline, and the 2023 close low. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 200-day moving average / 38.2% retracement at 67.75/93- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway towards the monthly open (69.35) and the yearly open / 61.8% retracement at 71.64/90.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows this week’s opening-range preserved just above support- look for the breakout next week to offer guidance here. A close below the median-line would threaten another bout of accelerated losses with the next major technical considerations seen at the 100% extension of the June decline / 2025 low-close at 56.84-57.21 and 2016 high / 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 decline at 54.36/48. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: A reversal off multi-year downtrend resistance is now testing support along the median-line. Risk for possible inflection off this mark. From at trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 66.31 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 61.45 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Keep an eye out for headlines out of Alaska today as President Trump and Putin attempt to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine—watch the weekly closes here for guidance.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex