Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Snaps Five-Week Slide at Critical Support

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• EUR/USD has fallen more than 5% from the August high, with the latest rebound snapping a five-week losing streak.
• The decline has reached a major technical support confluence, raising the prospect of a larger price inflection.
• Weekly momentum has deteriorated and although the broader bearish outlook remains intact, the bears may be vulnerable above critical support.
• Bulls face significant overhead resistance, with a stronger recovery needed to suggest a more meaningful low is in place.
• Eurozone and U.S. PMI data headline next week's event risk ahead of the Fed and ECB rate decisions later this month.
• Resistance 1.1276, 1.1355/65 (key), 1.1483- Support 1.1110/63 (key), ~1.1030s, 1.0905

EUR/USD enters the second half of October at a critical technical juncture after sustained selling pressure drove the pair to its lowest levels in 17 months. The latest recovery offers an initial sign of stabilization, but the broader downtrend remains firmly intact as buyers confront significant resistance overhead. With weekly momentum deeply stretched, the immediate focus is on whether Euro can build on this initial rebound or whether renewed selling pressure triggers another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Q4 Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading into a pivotal support into the close of Q3 and that, “From a trading standpoint,  rallies would need to be limited to 1.1578 IF price is heading for a break lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Euro broke below support the following week with price plunging more than 5.1% off the August highs. The decline has already extended into the next major support barrier with EUR/USD snapping a five-week losing streak on Friday.

The support zone in focus is 1.1110/63- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance, the 2024 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 May low-week close (LWC). Weekly RSI has now fallen to the lowest levels since January of 2025 and while the momentum profile continues to favor the bears, the downtrend remains vulnerable while above this key threshold.   

Initial resistance is eyed at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 and is backed by bearish invalidation at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April 2025 high week close at 1.1355/65. A breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal in underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the median line of the yearly downtrend (currently near ~1.1430s) and the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 1.1483.

A break below last week’s low would keep the focus on the lower parallel of the yearly downtrend which converges on the 25% parallel of the broader 2025 uptrend near ~1.1030s. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below likely to trigger another accelerated decline. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 61.8% retracement at 1.0905.

Bottom Line: EUR/USD responded to a major support zone last week and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the decline may be vulnerable while above this level. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1355/65 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1110 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

EUR/USD event risk is concentrated at the end of next week, with euro-area flash consumer confidence due Thursday and preliminary October PMIs on Friday. The PMI release will be the key test of whether the recent improvement in euro-area activity is holding into the fourth quarter and could directly shape expectations ahead of the ECB’s October 29 meeting. On the U.S. side, September housing data and the October flash PMIs are also due, while Fed officials remain in their blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 decision. The result is a data-heavy Friday where any divergence between European and U.S. activity could produce a sharp move in EUR/USD. Stay nimble into the releases watch the weekly close for directional guide. I’ll publish an updated Euro Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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