Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD 42% Rally Puts Major Trend Reversal in Play
Bitcoin is surging toward a major technical showdown, with bulls now challenging the barrier that could unlock another powerful leg higher.
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Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels
- Bitcoin has rallied more than 42% from the yearly low, with the August breakout extending into a major resistance confluence.
- BTC/USD is poised to mark an outside-weekly reversal as buyers press the upper end of the September range.
- A sustained break higher would strengthen the case for a larger trend reversal and expose yearly open resistance.
- Failure to clear the current barrier would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a deeper pullback within the broader recovery.
- The weekly close should provide important confirmation on whether the latest surge can develop into a more durable advance.
Bitcoin has staged a dramatic recovery from the yearly lows, with the advance carrying BTC/USD back toward one of the most important resistance zones on the chart. The advance was further supported by improving regulatory sentiment after the SEC unveiled a new framework for tokenized securities, with the combination of fresh demand and short-covering helping accelerate the breakout above $80K. Today’s 5% surge has materially improved the near-term technical outlook, but a break above key resistance is still needed to validate a more significant trend reversal. With the weekly close approaching, the next reaction could prove critical in determining whether the recovery extends or begins to lose momentum. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.
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Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
In last month’s Bitcoin Forecast we noted that BTC/USD had broken the August range and, “the immediate focus is on whether the bulls can stabilize the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 65,416 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 71,402 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.” Bitcoin surged more than 32% off the August low (42% off the yearly low) with the rally exhausting into the September open at 82,193-83,916. This region is defined by the May high-week close (HWC), the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the record high. Note that the median-line of the 2025 pitchfork converges on this pivotal threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to validate a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily 
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows the September range just below near-term resistance at the May high-day close (HDC) / high close at 81,447-82,193. Note that the February trendline converges on this zone over the next few days and a breach above this slope exposes key resistance at 83,712/916. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a daily / weekly close above needed to fuel the next major leg off the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2026 yearly open at 87,496 backed by the May low, the 2025 yearly open, and the 2026 HWC at 93,347/636.
Look for initial support at the monthly open near 78,571 with near-term bullish invalidation steady at the 2025 low / low-close at 74,434-76,159. Losses below this zone would validate a break of the September opening range, suggesting a more significant high is in place and raising the risk of a deeper correction. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 200-day moving average and the February low-day / low-week closes at 70,283/531 and the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the yearly low at 67,111.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is now poised to mark an outside weekly reversal with the bulls approaching major resistance hurdles just higher. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 76,159 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 83,916 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the multi-month uptrend. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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