Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Survives 5% Intervention Plunge – Uptrend at Risk

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/JPY plunged more than 5% from the yearly high following coordinated U.S.–Japan intervention but held the broader uptrend on a weekly closing basis.
• Weekly momentum has flattened after retreating sharply from its strongest levels since January.
• The technical focus has shifted to whether buyers can continue defending the rising trend structure after the intervention shock.
• A sustained recovery would revive the broader bullish outlook, while a break of trend support would strengthen the case for a more durable reversal.
• Intervention risk remains elevated, leaving yen crosses vulnerable to volatility spikes. Core PCE and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on tap
• Resistance 160.64/74 (key), 161.95, 164- Support 157.70-158.08, 156.67/73 (key), 154.79

USD/JPY enters a pivotal stretch after a violent intervention-driven reversal from the yearly highs failed to break the broader 2025 uptrend on a weekly closing basis. The sharp unwind has reset momentum and left price caught between rising trend support and a well-defined resistance barrier, putting the focus squarely on which side gives way first. With intervention risk still elevated and Fed Chair Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole, the technical backdrop remains vulnerable to another sharp volatility event. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was approaching resistance at fresh yearly highs, and that weekly momentum had, “reached its highest level since January (near 67) and a stretch into overbought alongside a breach above this resistance barrier would likely reinforce / sustain this rally. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 164 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.” USD/JPY registered an intraday high at 163.99 later that week with daily RSI capping the momentum rally at 70. The subsequent reversal sparked by the coordinated intervention effort between the U.S. and Japan plunged more than 5.3% but failed to mark a weekly close below the 2025 uptrend.

Weekly support rests with the 2025 high-week close (HWC) and the January HWC at 157.70-158.08. Key support & broader bullish invalidation rests just lower at the confluence of the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average at 156.67/73. A break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest more durable high is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2026 low-week close (LWC) at 154.79 and 151.95-152.69- a region defined by the 2022 & 2023 highs, the yearly low, and the 2026 low close.

Weekly resistance stands at the 160.64/74 where the 2024 HWC and the April high converges on the 61..8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would threaten resumption of the 2025 uptrend with subsequent resistance unchanged at the 2024 high at 161.95 and the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening range at 164- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. .

Bottom line: USD/JPY trading just above uptrend support with weekly momentum flatlining ahead of major event risk this week. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 156.67 needed to validate a break of the 2025 uptrend.

It’s important to note that that the intervention threat continues to loom and while the dollar retains a major yield advantage, official intervention and the BOJ’s increasingly inflation-sensitive rhetoric make further yen weakness vulnerable to sudden reversals. The focus now shifts to tomorrow’s highly anticipated Core PCE inflation report and the Jackson Hole World Economic Symposium. Fed Chair Warsh is slated to speak on Friday, and the key question is not simply whether he hints at a September rate move. It is whether the Chair can reassure bond investors that the Fed will contain inflation without allowing long-term yields to become disorderly. A hawkish, credibility-focused speech would reinforce the dollar-yen upside, while any concern about rising yields or financial-market stress could trigger a sharp yen recovery—especially with Japanese intervention risk still elevated. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex