EURUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: Is Trump Signaling Another Bull Run?

Key Events

• Flash manufacturing and services PMI on Friday are expected to add volatility risks to EURUSD’s capped gains as diplomatic tensions between the US and the EU fade.
• The removal of February 1 tariff threats lifted markets back toward key resistance levels. While gold remains elevated and eyeing the 5,000 threshold, caution remains warranted before any broader momentum recharge and the resumption of primary bull runs.

CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source: CNN

Sentiment has returned to neutral after leaning bearish, following Trump’s positive remarks on the US economy. He highlighted the impact of tax reductions, tariff income, rising 401k retirement valuations driven by the stock market surge, and overall US economic growth at +4.3%, according to the latest GDP figures. These comments helped restore investor confidence and bullish speculation, lifting key risk assets and US indices from fragile support levels.

• Bitcoin rebounded from 87,000 toward the 90,000 zone
• Nasdaq recovered from 24,900 back to 25,500
• Dow Jones climbed from 48,300 toward 49,200

Trump’s earlier recommendation to “buy the economy” had previously helped markets rebound from steep lows following tariff concerns in April 2025. However, his more recent outlook suggesting further bullish expectations for the market this year continues to be met with caution. This skepticism reflects the consolidations seen across US indices throughout December and January at elevated highs rather than depressed levels. The current price behavior echoes early 2025 conditions, alongside signs of stretched momentum and the persistent hold of gold and silver near record levels.

The EU–US tariff elimination headline briefly pulled gold prices lower by nearly 100 points before a swift rebound back above the 4,800 area, while Nasdaq was lifted toward the 25,500 resistance level. This zone remains pivotal, as it may either confirm a shift back toward a bullish bias or reinforce the continuation of a broader consolidation phase.

In line with the recovery in US indices, the US dollar regained strength, capping EURUSD gains below the 1.17 mark. This once again underscores the dominance of longer-term trends over short-term, headline-driven volatility, or market noise.

To clarify the key trends currently in focus and driving price action amid shifting headlines:

EURUSD Outlook: 2 Week Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Despite headline-driven turbulence, EURUSD continues to trade within a defined range between 1.15 and 1.17, extending from June 2025. Recent developments have reinforced this consolidation from both the upper and lower bounds. The broader structure remains fragile and could evolve into either a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern or a bullish continuation flag.

The scenarios are as follows:

A sustained hold below the 1.1480 level may confirm a head-and-shoulders reversal, dragging price action toward the trendline connecting lower highs between July 2023 and September 2024, near 1.13 and 1.12, offering potential dip-buying opportunities.

A sustained hold above 1.18 would confirm a bullish continuation path, bringing key resistance levels and historical highs from 2021, 2020, and 2018 into focus at 1.22 and 1.25.

Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily time-frame perspective, Nasdaq managed to recover from the fragile 24,900 support, posting a bullish engulfing pattern and reclaiming the 25,500 resistance highlighted in yesterday’s article Bitcoin, Nasdaq Outlook: Risk Sentiment Holds Neutral Ahead of Trump Speech. This level remains pivotal and could open the path toward 25,800 and 26,300, reinforcing bullish bias and redirecting gains toward the 27,000 threshold.

On the downside, should losses resume and prices close back below the 25,200 and 24,900 support zones, a steeper corrective structure would be confirmed. A break below these levels exposes 24,600, followed by deeper downside risk toward 24,300, 23,900, and 23,400, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge in line with the broader uptrend. The 23,400 level aligns with the projected target of a potential double-top formation and the 100% extension measured from the 26,300 high, the 23,900 November low, and the 25,800 January 2026 high. In more extreme scenarios, the 1.272 extension comes into focus near 22,900.

Bearish risks remain correlated with the Dow Jones monthly chart, where an extended consolidation since the 2020 rebound continues to raise the risk of a broader corrective structure before longer-term uptrends resume.

Dow Jones Monthly Outlook – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves