Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX rises towards record highs as Trump extends the ceasefire

US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.66%, S&P futures 0.62%  & Nasdaq futures 0.78%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.15% & DAX -0.19%

US stocks rise towards record highs

• The Middle East ceasefire is extended indefinitely by Trump, but the Strait remains closed
• Earnings offer support to a market tired of the Iran-US back-and-forth
• Oil holds towards the hundred dollars a barrel

US equities advance as ceasefire optimism offsets geopolitical risks

US stocks are moving higher on Wednesday, nearing record highs after President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely.

However, while the truce has been prolonged, the US blockade on Iranian ports remains in place, and the Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, keeping underlying tensions elevated.

Markets, tired of persistent geopolitical back-and-forth and eager for positive catalysts, are leaning into expectations that the conflict will ultimately end soon. That said, inflation risks tied to prolonged energy supply disruptions remain a key risk.

With a favorable outcome increasingly priced in, the downside risk is that the ceasefire unravels or that shipping through the Strait remains constrained for an extended period—potentially driving energy prices back towards $110 and reigniting inflation pressures.

At the same time, equities are finding support from resilient corporate earnings, which continue to reinforce confidence. S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have risen roughly 4% since the end of January.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with attention shifting to PMI data due tomorrow and the Federal Reserve meeting next week, where policy is widely expected to remain unchanged.

Corporate movers

United Airlines rises more than 1.5%, despite issuing weaker guidance for the current quarter and full year as higher fuel costs weigh on its outlook. The airline now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $7–$11 per share, down from a prior $12–$14 range, though near-term results offered some support.

Boeing gains 3.5% after reporting a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss. The company posted a loss of $0.20 per share on revenue of $22.22 billion, outperforming estimates for a $0.80 loss and $21.78 billion in revenue.

AT&T edges up 0.5% after delivering better-than-expected Q1 results, with EPS of $0.57 on revenue of $31.5 billion.

Crypto-linked stocks move higher as Bitcoin climbs to an 11-week high above $78,000. Coinbase rises 4.5%, while Robinhood gains 3.5%.

NASDAQ 100 – Technical analysis

The NASDAQ has rebounded from its 22,800 low in 2026, breaking above falling trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average to reach a record high near 26,740. This level also aligns with a longer-term rising trendline from May last year.

Momentum indicators suggest near-term caution, with the RSI in overbought territory, pointing to the potential for consolidation or a modest pullback.

A sustained move above trendline resistance could open the path toward 27,500, with 28,000 as the next psychological level.

On the downside, immediate support sits at 26,200 (January and October highs). A break below this level could expose 25,400 (mid-February swing high), followed by the 200-day moving average near 24,650.

FX markets – USD holds steady, GBP/USD is flat.

The US dollar is holding firm near a one-week high amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. The move is supported by stronger-than-expected US retail sales data and a slightly hawkish tone from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh during his Senate hearing.

EUR/USD trades steadily around 1.1750. Upside in the euro may be limited after ECB policymaker comments suggested rate hikes this year cannot be ruled out, though no immediate move is expected at the upcoming meeting.

GBP/USD holds near 1.35 following mixed UK inflation data. Headline CPI rose to 3.3% year-on-year in March from 3.0%, driven largely by fuel prices, which surged 8.7% month-on-month. However, core inflation unexpectedly eased to 3.1%, reinforcing expectations that supporting the view that the Bank of England will likely leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in the meeting on April 30 limiting the upside for now.

Oil steadies near $100 as supply risks offset ceasefire optimism

Oil prices are holding firm, with Brent crude trading just below $100 per barrel, as supply concerns continue to counterbalance tentative optimism around US-Iran ceasefire talks.

Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the fragility of the situation, despite President Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire indefinitely. The US is maintaining its blockade on Iranian ports, and the Strait remains effectively closed, sustaining pressure on global supply routes.

Reports of renewed hostilities involving Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps further highlight the risk of escalation, even as diplomatic efforts continue.

Ongoing disruption to shipping flows is reinforcing supply-side fears, helping to keep crude prices supported despite hopes that tensions may eventually ease.