
FOMC Recap: Powell to STAY on the Fed Board - What Traders Need to Know
Powell’s decision to remain on the FOMC board preserves its independence and could lead to higher interest rates in the near term.
Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.

Powell’s decision to remain on the FOMC board preserves its independence and could lead to higher interest rates in the near term.

The DOJ’s subpoena of Fed Chairman Powell raises risks for Fed independence, though the central bank is still seen as likely to hold interest rates unless inflation falls dramatically in Q1 - what does that mean for markets?

Despite incremental dovish shifts in the makeup of the FOMC voters, early 2026 is still likely to bring a pause to the Fed’s easing cycle.

DXY, USDCAD Outlook: With the Fed and BOC decisions just hours away, markets appear to have priced in 25 bps cuts and a dovish bias. Key levels are in focus, but any policy surprises — especially from the Fed — could trigger fresh volatility and extend current trends.

Once Powell gives us some direction, I would expect the dollar to continue in that direction until the release of more US data next week. Among them, consumer confidence (Tuesday) and core PCE index (Friday) are the most important. Looking further ahead, the August data releases of the nonfarm payrolls on September 5 and CPI on September 11 will be the most important macro pointers in as far as the dollar forecast and direction is concerned.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: WTI rebounded from critical support as crude oil inventories dropped and rate cut expectations spiral into uncertainty. Despite a risk appetite crunch, oil is holding gains above the 63.70 mark, which may be tested with Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The chances of (at least) a dissent against the consensus FOMC decision are high, highlighting the increasing tension within the committee. What does it mean for the US Dollar Index (DXY)?

The Australian dollar breaks lower as crude oil rallies on rising geopolitical risk, while CPI and Powell’s testimony loom large.
GBPUSD, USDCAD Outlook: This week, the U.S. dollar lost bullish momentum, pushing both USDCAD and GBPUSD toward their respective 2025 extremes. With GBPUSD holding above 1.33 and USDCAD approaching 1.38, upcoming key events will be closely watched to reassess the market narrative.
Upside risks to the Fed’s inflation forecast are likely to hamstring Jerome Powell and the FOMC from delivering any imminent interest rate cuts.
Markets stay on edge as inflation fears grow, fueled by Fed Chair Powell’s stance on delaying rate cuts, upcoming U.S. CPI data, and tariff impacts. Nasdaq holds below record highs, while EUR/USD maintains its bullish rebound.
The Fed hinted at a longer pause to interest rates but Chairman Powell ultimately minimized his impact on markets in the January FOMC meeting.
The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.