Crypto Forecast: Bitcoin Recovery Hits a Wall – Range Breakout to Decide Year-End Trend
Bitcoin’s rebound is losing steam at key resistance with the December range intact. Traders look for a breakout define the next major move in BTC/USD.
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Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels
- Bitcoin rally off eight-month low fails at pivotal resistance- BTC/USD falls nearly 5.5% from monthly high
- BTC/USD medium-term outlook remains tilted to the downside while beneath this key pivot zone- breakout of the December range to offer guidance into year-end
- Rallies should be capped by October downtrend IF price is heading lower on this stretch, with a close beneath support needed to fuel next leg of the decline.
Bitcoin rallied more than 17.5% off the November lows with the recovery exhausting at technical resistance into the monthly open. The December opening-range has been carved out just below and the focus is on a breakout for guidance heading into the close of the year with the medium-term risk still tilted to the downside while within the October downtrend. Traders should stay nimble into this inflection zone, with the breakout likely to define the next major move. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.
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Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
In last month’s Cryptocurrency Forecast we note that a four-week decline in Bitcoin was testing near-term support with key resistance eyed at, “93,347-94,236- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the May low, and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and that a larger recovery is underway.” BTC/USD has been testing this key pivot zone for the past two-weeks with the December opening-range taking shape just below. Note that the median-line of a newly identified pitchfork extending off the 2024 & 2025 highs converges on this threshold into the close of the year. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone in the weeks ahead for guidance with the technical outlook tilted to the downside while below.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD trading within the confines of an embedded channel formation with the upper parallel further highlighting this key resistance zone. A topside breach / close above would mark a breakout of the December opening-range with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the October decline and the June swing low at 98,008/240 and the 52-week moving average, currently near ~102,200. Strength surpassing the July low / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 105,130-106,470 would ultimately be needed to threaten resumption of the multi-year uptrend in Bitcoin.
Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the late-November rally and the December low-day close (LDC) at 85,929-86,291, backed by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance at 83,712-84,000. A break / close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the October downtrend with the next major technical consideration seen at 78,342-79,127 – a region defined by the 2025 weekly low-close and the 2025 low0day close (LDC). Note that the 25% parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the year- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is trading just below technical resistance with the December opening-range intact heading into next week- look for the breakout to offer guidance here. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 94,236 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 83,712 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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