Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA holds steady near 48k after fresh jobs data

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.15%, S&P futures 0.05%  & Nasdaq futures -0.14%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.2% & DAX 0.06%

• Stocks steady after recent rally
• Jobless claims fall sharply
• Fed rate cut expectations remain high
• Oil is unchanged with geopolitical tensions in focus

Stocks steady after recent gains

US stocks are modestly lower as investors digest more jobs data, while continuing to price in an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.

Data released today showed that US jobless claims fell to a three-year low, indicating that employers are still largely holding on to workers. Initial claims decreased by 27,191 thousand in the week ending November 29th, a period which included Thanksgiving. However, it's worth noting that data around this time of year can be rather choppy, particularly around holidays. Say it's not worth reading too much into one week's numbers. However, broadly speaking, initial claims have remained within a relatively consistent range, suggesting a low pace of job losses.

Meanwhile, announced layoffs by U.S. companies filed in the second half of November or in October, but we're still the highest for any November in the past 3 years.

The data follows a sharp drop in ADP private payrolls yesterday, marking the weakest private payrolls in 18 months.

These are some of the last labour market reports that the Federal Reserve will see before its final meeting of the year next week, where the market is pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points.

The big question is what comes next, as Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell faces a very divided committee. Powell could deliver a hawkish cut as a compromise. Markets are still expecting only modest pricing easing beyond December, with only 25 basis points worth of cuts in the first three meetings of next year.

While the White House has hinted that economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be the next Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell in May next year. However, Trump said the announcement won't be made till early next year.

Corporate news

Salesforce is rising over 1.5% after the company lifted its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted income outlook. The upbeat mood was bolstered by projections of strong demand growth for the company's AI-enhanced agent platform.

NVIDIA is rising 0.4% after reports that the chances of the chipmaker being allowed to send some of its AI chips to China have meaningfully increased.

Dollar General is rising over 2% after the budget retailer lifted its annual profit forecast, banking on resilient demand at its discount stores, even as it cuts costs and reduces inventory.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow Jones has extended its recovery from the 45,700 low, rising to test 48k resistance. Buyers, supported by momentum, will look to rise above this level to retest the record high. Support is seen at 47,000 support level, the early October high and 50 SMA. Below here, the rising trendline support is seen around 46,200. A break below 45,700 creates a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD gains

The U.S. dollar is edging lower for a 10^th straight session as recent data support a December Fed rate cut. The USD is also being weighed down by the prospect of a dovish monetary policy, with Kevin Hasset replacing Fed chair Jerome Powell next year.

EUR/USD is falling after a weaker-than-expected eurozone retail sales. Retail sales were flat, defying expectations of a 0.1% rise, but rose from -0.1% in September. The data reinforces the picture of stagnation in household consumption.

GBP/USD is edging lower after recent gains. Data show that British businesses expect to reduce staff numbers while keeping prices more or less unchanged, according to a Bank of England survey conducted before the budget. Meanwhile, the market is still pricing in a 90% probability that the BoE will cut rates next month.

Oil is unchanged amid geopolitical tensions.

Oil is unchanged on Thursday as the market remains focused on Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil infrastructure, although the latest attempt has not disrupted supplies. However, these are turning into more sustained and strategically coordinated attack.

At the same time, progress on the peace plan between Ukraine and Russia appeared to have stalled, with US representatives emerging from peace talks with the Kremlin with no notable breakthroughs. Previous expectations were that oil prices would end lower, as any deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.

Inventory data showed that crude inventories rose by 547,000 barrels, below expectations of 821,000.