GBPUSD, Gold Forecast: FOMC Minutes Hold Dollar and Gold Gains
GBPUSD, Gold Forecast: FOMC minutes revealed mixed opinions on the timing and suitability of a rate cut, while UK Flash PMIs showed contrasting results between manufacturing and services — keeping GBPUSD in wait-and-see mode and boosting gold’s appeal as a haven asset.
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Key Events
- Trump’s tariff risks split Fed governors on rate cut decisions, keeping the dollar afloat
- UK Flash Manufacturing PMI dipped to 47.3; Services PMI rose to 53.6
- Gold and silver gain as market uncertainty supports safe haven demand
Markets remain in indecisive consolidation mode, driven by a mix of low summer liquidity, uncertainty around the Fed's next move, tariff risks, and dollar strength.
According to CNBC, this was the first time in over 30 years that multiple Fed governors voted against a rate decision. The indecision reflects tensions between weak labor data and tariff-driven inflation risks, shifting market focus to Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, themed “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
As uncertainty builds, risk appetite has faded, with Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 pulling back from record highs. The dollar remains firm near 98, while safe havens like gold and silver are holding gains — with gold near $3,340 and silver near $38.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainty
GBPUSD Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
The July 2025 low at 1.3140 marked a strong bullish rejection (long lower wick), indicating potential upward bias. However, the uncertain Fed outlook and dollar strength are keeping indicators neutral, with RSI near 50 and price trading above 1.34. Mixed PMI results haven’t helped directional clarity, but key levels are in focus:
Bullish scenario: A clean break above 1.36 may extend gains toward 1.38, and possibly test 1.40 and 1.42 — 2021 highs.
Bearish scenario: A break below 1.3430 could lead to declines toward 1.3360, 1.3280, and 1.32.
Gold Forecast: 4 Hour Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
XAUUSD has been in a 5-month consolidation phase since hitting its record high at $3,500. On the 4-hour chart, the price is respecting the lower edge of the range above $3,300, and testing resistance levels drawn from a Fibonacci extension of the $3,268 low, $3,408 high, and $3,311 pullback.
- Resistance levels in focus: $3,350, $3,380, $3,400, and $3,450
- A confirmed breakout may extend to $3,780 and $4,000
- Downside risk: A close below $3,280 could open the path toward $3,260, $3,240, $3,130, and $2,900
Gold Forecast: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
The longer this consolidation lasts, the stronger the eventual breakout may be. The pattern may evolve into either an inverted head and shoulders (with an extended right shoulder) or a simple triangle formation. RSI across daily, weekly, and hourly charts remains neutral to slightly positive, unless invalidated by a breakdown.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
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