Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable into Monthly Cross
USD/JPY surged nearly 9.7% off the yearly low with the rally now at pivotal resistance into the monthly close. Battle lines drawn on the weekly/daily technical charts.
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Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly / Daily Trade Levels
- USD/JPY poised to mark fifth weekly advance- up for six-of-the-past seven weeks
- USD/JPY bulls testing technical resistance- BoJ, US PCE / NFPs on tap into monthly cross
- Resistance 153.02/40 (key), 154.89, 157.16- Support 151.51/94, 148.73-149.60 (key), 146.42/65
The US Dollar surged nearly 9.7% against the Japanese Yen since the September/ yearly lows in USD/JPY, with the rally attempting to mark a fifth consecutive-weekly advance. The bulls are now testing a key technical hurdle and we’re looking for a reaction off this mark into the monthly cross with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly & daily technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that, “a reversal off key support at the yearly lows in USD/JPY is now testing a major pivot zone into downtrend resistance... losses should be limited to the October open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 75% parallel needed to fuel the next major leg.” The zone in focus was 148.73-149.60- a region defined by the 2022 high-close and the 2023 high-week close (HWC).
Price spent nearly three-weeks grinding into this region before breaking out with the October advance extending nearly 7.2%. The rally is testing Fibonacci resistance this week and the risk rises for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection into the close of the month.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
A closer look at the daily chart shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the September lows with the 75% parallel capping the rally for the last two-days. The focus is on key resistance here at the May low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 153.02/40. Note that the daily momentum is signaling bearish divergence into these highs and we’re looking for a reaction off this mark in the coming days.
Initial support rests with the 200-day moving average / 2022 high 151.51/94 – note that the median-line converges on this zone into the start of November and a break / close below would risk a larger correction within the multi-month uptrend. Medium-term bullish invalidation now raised to 148.73-149.60 with a break / close below the February LDC / August low-week close (LWC) at 146.42/65 ultimately needed to put the bears back in control.
A topside breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone would be needed to mark uptrend resumption / validate a breakout of the broader July downtrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the June LDC at 154.89, the 78.6% retracement at 157.16 and the April high-close at 158.45- both regions of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is testing technical resistance this week and while near-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable into this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the 200 DMA IF Price is heading for a breakout with a close above 153.40 needed to mark uptrend resumption.
Keep in mind there is major event risk ahead with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, and Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into the monthly cross. Stay nimble in the November open and watch the weekly closes here for guidance.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
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