Nasdaq100 Forecast: QQQ rises cautiously ahead of tonight's debate & CPI data

US futures

Dow future 0.10% at 40860

S&P futures 0.32% at 5487

Nasdaq futures 0.37% at 18727

In Europe

FTSE -0.34% at 8233

Dax -0.61% at 18317

• Stocks edge higher in cautious trade
• The Trump vs Harris election debate is tonight
• Apple falls after iPhone unveiling
• Oil falls on China & US demand concerns

Stocks look to the Trump vs Harris debate & tomorrow’s CPI report

U.S. stocks are pointing to a modestly higher open in cautious trade ahead of the Kamala Harris - Trump presidential debate later this evening and inflation data tomorrow.

The main indices rose on Monday thanks to bargain hunters after a steep sell-off in the previous week.

Markets are attempting to gauge the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of next week's meeting on September 17th and 18th with a rate cut fully priced in. However, the size of that rate cut remains uncertain, with the market pricing in a 30% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut. More clarity could come on Wednesday with the latest US inflation data.

 Looking ahead to this evening, the first debate between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will be watched closely. The debate comes as the two are neck and neck in the polls just two months ahead of Election Day. Investors are weighing election risk, with volatility gauges across stock bonds and FX on the rise. The market will be looking for more clarity on tax proposals, tariff projections, spending policies, plans for EV healthcare, and more.

The U.S. economic calendar is quiet during the session and leaving attention on stock news.

Corporate news

Apple is set to open 1% lower after the top EU court ruled against the iPhone maker, insisting that it must repay €13 billion in back tax. The news comes a day after Apple revealed its iPhone 16 and the latest AI-enhanced features, which failed to spark a strong positive response.

Oracle shares are rising sharply ahead of the open after the software group posted better-than-expected fiscal Q1 sales thanks to strong demand for its cloud business and after it signed a strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nadaq 100 trades below a falling trendline dating back to early July and its all-time high. The downside has once again found support on the 200 SMA. Sellers, supported by the RSI below 50, will look to take out the 200 SMA to bring 17800 into focus ahead of 17235, the August low. Should the 200 SMA hold, buyers will need to extend gains above 19000 towards 19400, the falling trendline resistance.

FX markets – USD holds steady, EUR/USD is flat

The U.S. Dollar is unchanged in quiet trade ahead of tomorrow's inflation reading. The dollar has recovered from monthly losses as the market reins in expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut next week.

EUR/USD is unchanged after German inflation cooled in line with expectations to 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target and its lowest level in three years. The data will make it easier for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates when it meets this week.

GBP/USD is rising after UK jobs data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and pay growth cooled, keeping the Bank of England on track for another interest rate hike, most likely in November.

Oil resumes decline after China data.

Oil prices are resuming the downward trajectory as demand concerns once again return to the forefront, overshadowing the possible impact of tropical storm Francine on oil production.

Oil prices saw steep losses last week and are falling again today due to renewed concerns that global oil demand will slow, particularly after less-than-impressive data from top oil importer China.

While Chinese trade data came in better than expected imports while weaker than forecast, highlighting the weak demand environment and the struggles that the Chinese economy faces in finding a firmer footing

The data comes after a string of weak economic readings from China for August, which raised concerns about slowing growth. Beyond China, caution over US interest rate hikes and the potential slowdown in the world's largest economy also weighed on oil.

These concerns overshadowed the news that many companies were stopping production and refining activities in the Gulf of Mexico as tropical storm Francine made its way toward the US. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting land and could cause extended irruption in the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico.