S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises as AI optimism offsets Middle East uncertainty

US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.54%, S&P futures 0.19%  & Nasdaq futures 0.27%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.55% & DAX -0.12%

• US stocks hover around record highs
• Middle East peace talks, AI optimism, and Kevin Warsh’s hearing are in focus
• Apple slips after CEO Cook announces his departure
• Oil falls ahead of possible peace talks

Stocks rise on AI optimism ahead of Warsh’s Senate hearing

US stocks are pointing to a modestly higher open, briefly reaching record highs amid renewed AI-driven optimism. Gains in the tech sector are outweighing ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, as investors await the confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve nominee backed by President Trump.

The confirmation process has taken longer than expected, as Republican Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block the nomination until the Department of Justice ends its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which he views as a threat to central bank independence.

Meanwhile, markets are closely watching developments in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, although the US and Iran may meet for further diplomatic talks this week ahead of the ceasefire deadline. Despite uncertainty, markets appear to be pricing in a relatively optimistic outcome.

Corporate movers

Apple is in focus after CEO Tim Cook announced he will step down, naming John Ternus as his successor from September. Cook’s 15-year tenure saw Apple grow into one of the world’s most valuable companies, with iPhone revenues reaching around $200 billion annually and services generating over $100 billion per year. Ternus has worked at the company for 25 years, rising through the ranks and overseeing the engineering of its best-selling products to become the company’s third CEO in the past 30 years. He will need to steer the company’s AI strategy following a few rare missteps in recent years.

Amazon is rising more than 2% premarket after announcing plans to invest up to $25 billion in AI startup Anthropic. This expands an existing partnership, following Amazon’s previous $8 billion investment. Anthropic, the creator of Claude AI, has committed to spending over $100 billion on Amazon’s cloud infrastructure over the next decade.

S&P 500 – Technical analysis

The S&P 500 has rebounded from its 6,310 low earlier in 2026, rising to a record high of 7,147. The index hovers around these levels and remains within a steep upward channel. The RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting near-term consolidation.

A move above 7,200 would mark the next upside target and the upper boundary of the channel. On the downside, support lies at 7,050, followed by the key psychological level at 7,000.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The US dollar is recovering losses from the previous session amid uncertainty over Middle East developments ahead of possible peace talks. The focus is also on Warsh’s Senate hearing.

EUR/USD is falling due to a stronger dollar and weak German data. German ZEW economic sentiment dropped sharply to -17.2 from -0.5, reflecting concerns over rising energy costs and long-term energy supply shortages.

GBP/USD is also lower after UK labour market data pointed to weakness. According to the Office for National Statistics, vacancies fell to a five-year low in March. Unemployment declined to 4.9% from 5.2%, but this was driven by rising economic inactivity rather than stronger employment. Wage growth slowed to 3.5%, suggesting easing inflationary pressure. CPI data due tomorrow is expected to show inflation rising to 3.3%.

Oil falls as focus shifts to peace talks

Oil prices are falling on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session, as expectations grow that US–Iran talks could take place this week and potentially increase supply.

Investors remain focused on whether negotiations could extend the ceasefire or lead to a broader agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in oil prices suggests markets are leaning towards a positive outcome.

However, prolonged disruption could remove up to 1.3 billion barrels of supply, potentially keeping oil prices elevated near $110 in Q2.