S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises on trade talk optimism

US futures

Dow future -1.23% at 40210

S&P futures 0.68% at 5308

Nasdaq futures 1% at 18340

In Europe

FTSE -0.53% at 8225

Dax -0.37.% at 21194

• Stocks indices rise as trade talks with Japan progress
• The EU and China are reportedly open to talks
• Netflix reports after the close
• Oil rises 3% this week

Stocks rise but are set for a weekly decline

U.S. stock indices are broadly rising on Thursday, the final trading day of the long Easter weekend, amid optimism in trade talks between the White House and Japan and as President Trump criticises Powell once more.

The rise comes after significant losses yesterday, driven by tech weakness, after Nvidia disclosed a hefty quarterly charge time for US export controls to China and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell.

Cool man indices in the US are heading for a weekly decline as the market continues following trade headlines. Today, optimism that an assessment could be agreed upon between the US and its major trading partners over tariffs, avoiding an all-out global trade war, is helping some stocks higher. Trump declared big progress in negotiations with Japan.

Japan has been seen as a litmus test as the first major trading partner to negotiate with the US. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated she wants to give negotiations a chance, and Bloomberg reported that China may also be open to talks.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned of economic uncertainties introduced by new tariffs, supporting the Fed's wait-and-see stance. Position prompted criticism from Trump, who suggested that he should be terminated from his position. Trump considers that the Fed should have already lowered interest rates.

Corporate news

Netflix is due to report after the close, and will be the first time that it won’t report subscriber numbers. EPS is expected to rise to $5.68 on revenue of $10.50 billion.

Eli Lilly is set to open 2% higher after positive Phase 3 results for its oral diabetes drug.

Meanwhile, United Health is set to open 19% lower after the health insurance provider lowered its earnings outlook for fiscal 2025 and missed expectations for Q1. EPS came in at $7.20 below $7.29 forecast. Revenue was $109.6 billion, below $111.5 billion forecast. The sharp drop pulls the Dow Jones lower.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P500 recovered from 4800 the 2025 April low, running into resistance at 5500 before correcting lower. Buyers will need to rise above 5500 to gain conviction and break the falling trendline that could confirm a bullish trend.  The 50 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA in a death cross signal. Sellers will look to extend losses towards 5300 and then towards 5150.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising but remains close to its 3-year low. The modest rise comes after US trade talks with Japan. However, Trump’s chaotic policy has clouded the outlook for the US economy. The USD is on track to fall across the week.

The EUR/USD is falling after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, taking the rate to 2.25%. This marked the 7^th rate cut by the ECB this cutting cycle amid rising concerns over the growth outlook.

GBP/USD is edging lower amid a stronger USD but remains close to a 6-month high. The pair is set to gain this week despite UK inflation cooling to 2.6% and signs of weakness in the labour market. The BoE is expected to cut rates in May.

Oil rises over 3% this week

Oil prices are rising for a second straight session. After two weeks of losses, the market is on track to gain 3% this week.

Oil prices have risen to a two-week peak after the US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil exports raising supply concerns. The sanctions issued by Trump's administration ramp up pressure on Tehran amid talks on the country's escalating nuclear programme.

Meanwhile, OPEC said it had received updated plans for further output cuts from Kazakhstan and Iraq.