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Commitment of traders report (COT): Traders flipped to net-long euro

Despite negative sentiment, weak data and an energy crisis wreaking havoc for Europe, traders decided they wanted to be net-long euro futures ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Research

The VIX (volatility index) is on the rise ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium

A combination of rising volatility levels, market sentiment and pending events such as US inflation and Jackson Hole has seen a pickup in volatility and selloff across stock market indices.

EU consumer confidence readings collapse to record lows; EUR/GBP

The increased inflation and fears of low supply of natural gas, combined with risk of a recession, are causing consumer sentiment in the Eurozone to fall to record lows.

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Index in focus: Nasdaq 100 bullish positioning lowest since May

The balance of the positioning, technical, and fundamental forces still suggest the index is in a bear market

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Soured sentiment keeps AUD/JPY on the ropes

Concerns that the US is headed for stagflation weighed on sentiment yesterday, which has placed AUD/JPY back onto our bearish watchlist.

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Weekly COT report: Traders flip to net-short exposure on the euro

Traders flipped to net-short exposure to euro futures for the first time since early January last week.

Research

Futures traders load up on AUD longs (despite falling prices)

With prices falling whilst futures traders increase their bullish exposure to the Australian dollar, we’re keen to see if it can hold above 0.73 and form a countertrend bounce.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Gold volumes lower, yen bears dominate

Whilst large speculators trimmed both long and short exposure last week, we continue to suspect gold remains in a corrective move.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Fastest pace of AUD short covering since March 2020

Last week, AUD shorts were culled at their fastest pace since March 2020, when eye watering levels of stimulus was rolled out at their height of the pandemic.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT Report: Traders abandon the ruble, flock to gold and silver

Traders continued to pile into long bets on gold and silver last week, whilst offshore ruble speculators seemingly ran for cover.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Managed funds most bullish on gold since March 2020

Gold is clearly back in fashion thanks to the combination of forthcoming Fed hikes and the Ukraine crisis, with futures markets within easy reach of a record high.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Investors kept piling into gold

Gold remained the go-to hedge before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, and there seems little reason for that trend to change in light of recent headlines.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Managed funds most bullish on gold in 3-months

Bullish exposure continues to fall for the US dollar despite the Fed on the cusp of beginning their rate-hike cycle.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Net-long exposure to the USD fell to a 6-month low

It was the fourth consecutive week that traders reduced their net-long exposure to the US dollar, according to data from IMM (International Monetary Market).

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Net-long exposure to gold fell sharply last week

Given the lacklustre bounce on gold alongside a rise in short bets and closure of longs last week, we retain the view that its recent bounce is corrective.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: Divergences form between FX prices and trader positioning

As the data was compiled ahead of the FOMC meeting its likely there are some distortions in this week’s speculative positioning report.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT report: GBP futures on the cusp of net-long exposure

What began as a short-covering rally is now seeing increased bullish activity on the British pound futures contract.

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Weekly COT Report: Bearish exposure to AUD hits a new record

AT -91.5k contracts net-short, it is the most aggressively bearish exposure on AUD futures by large speculators on record.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT Report: Sterling extends short-covering rally

The British pound was the only major to close higher against the greenback last week, and speculative positioning suggests short covering remains the main driver.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT Report: NZD flips to net-short as bulls capitulate

Kiwi bulls appeared spooked last week as we saw gross longs closed at their second fastest rate on record.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT Report: Traders are their most bullish on USD in 2.5 years

The bullish positioning for the US dollar rose to new highs, ahead of Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments last week.

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Lumber looks set to build a new rally

Last week fund managers piled into lumber futures at their fastest weekly pace in 19-months. Yesterday prices rose to a key resistance level.

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Weekly COT Report: Pound Shorts Intensify

Traders were their most bearish on British pound futures in 17-months, according to last week’s commitment of traders report.