British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of July

GBP/USD seems to be coiling in a narrow range after clearing the 2022 high (1.3749).

British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD

GBP/USD seems to be coiling in a narrow range after clearing the 2022 high (1.3749), but the exchange rate may attempt to test the October 2021 high (1.3835) should it continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.3445).

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of July

Keep in mind, GBP/USD rallied to a fresh yearly high (1.3771) after dipping below the moving average for the first time since April, and the consolidation in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary even as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterates that ‘a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate’ while speaking at British Chamber of Commerce.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

The comments suggest the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will further unwind its restrictive policy after voting 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate at 4.25% in June, but GBP/USD may continue to reflect a bullish trend ahead of the next BoE meeting in August on the back of US Dollar weakness.

With that said, the opening range for July is in focus as GBP/USD appears to be coiling within a narrow range, and the British Pound may continue to outperform against the Greenback as the ongoing transition in US trade policy clouds the outlook for growth and inflation.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

GBP/USD pulls back ahead of the October 2021 high (1.3835) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, and lack of momentum to hold above 1.3650 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) may push the exchange rate back toward the 1.3410 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.3460 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) zone.
Failure to defend the June low (1.3371) brings 1.3310 (100% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, but GBP/USD may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.3445) amid the failed attempt to close below the moving average.
Need a move/close above the 1.3800 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) to 1.3810 (50% Fibonacci extension) region to raise the scope for a test of the October 2021 high (1.3835), with the next area of interest coming in around the September 2021 high (1.3913).

Additional Market Outlooks

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tumbles Toward June Low

USD/CHF Selloff Stalls to Keep RSI Out of Oversold Zone

AUD/USD Recovery Materializes amid Failed Attempt to Test May Low

US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Reverses Ahead of May High

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

Latest market news

Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Nears Critical Yearly Support September 23, 2026 06:32 PM

GBP/USD forecast: US dollar surges as bonds implode September 23, 2026 05:32 PM

Gold Analysis: Rising Yields and Dollar Strength Weigh on XAU/USD September 23, 2026 05:25 PM

Bitcoin Takes Shine from Gold Even as Pullback Begins September 23, 2026 05:04 PM

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Breakdown Threatens Deeper Correction September 23, 2026 03:30 PM

Wall Street Forecast: DJIA rises on hawkish Fed expectations & rising yields September 23, 2026 03:03 PM

Latest Research

Open an account in minutes

Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.

Open account

Web Trader platform

Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.

Web Trader

Latest News & Analysis

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.