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Four guys walk into a bar before central bank meetings…….
Will the RBA signal that they are going to pause the rate hike cycle?
ECB hikes 50bps, as expected. Another 50bps hike to come in March
During the press conference, Christine Lagarde seemed to be talking out of both sides of her mouth.
US open: Tech rallies after Meta impresses & a less hawkish Fed
US stocks head broadly higher after a less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve and as Meta impresses. Big tech will be in focus ahead of more earnings after the close.
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BoE’s dovish hike leaves pound in limbo
Investors are wondering whether the BoE was done with hiking...
Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD
GBP/USD rises towards 1.24 post-Fed & ahead of the BoE. EUR/USD rises above 1.10 with all eyes on the ECB.
EUR/GBP probes YTD high ahead of BOE and ECB meetings
With the Fed having delivered their 25bp yesterday, it is now over to the BOE ECB today, who are expected to hike by 100bp between them.
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited
Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?
US open: Stocks fall as Snap disappoints & ahead of the Fed
Stocks are heading southwards after Snap, a usual canary in the coal mine, posts the slowest revenue growth since going public in 2017 and as investors await the Fed rate decision.
European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up
The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).
BoE Preview: MPC might be split but 50 bp hike likely
The GBP/USD could be heading to 1.25 if the BoE does not deliver a dovish surprise.
ECB Preview: All about forward guidance
While a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of forward guidance...
How much higher can gold move?
By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.
US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario
Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?
US open: Futures pare earlier losses as the Fed meeting begins
Futures pared earlier losses after US labour cost data comes in weaker than expected a sign of cooling inflation. The data comes as the Fed meeting kicks off ahead of tomorrow's decision and as earnings continue to roll in.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, USD/CAD
EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ GDP data. USD/CAD rises on Fed jitters, falling oil & ahead of CAD GDP.
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Australia’s retail snails weigh on December's trade figures (again)
Australia’s retail sales were down a lot more than expected in December, suggesting much of the hype had died over the Black Friday Sales and Cyber Sales Monday in November.
Looking to stay away from FED, BOE, and ECB this week? How about AUD/CAD?
Since October 2022 the pair has been moving higher and has recently hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With the FOMC and the ECB meetings, along with a treasure trove of important economic data from the US and Europe, EUR/USD should be volatile this week.
US open: Stocks fall as the Fed meeting comes into focus
US stocks are falling with the Nasdaq leading the charge lower, as Fed jitters emerge. With so much good news priced in will the Fed live up to expectations?
Week Ahead: FOMC, BOE, ECB, OPEC, NFP and big tech earnings
The FOMC is expected to hike 25bps, while both the BOE and the ECB are expected to hike 50bps.
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.