News & Analysis
AUD/USD falls post RBA, crude oil ears eye $70: Asian Open
AUD/USD continued lower for a second day after momentum turned at a key resistance level. But if seasonality remains true, it could be on for a better performance in the second half of the month. And whilst crude oil touched a 5-month low, we're on guard for a technical bounce before its next leg lower towards $70.
USD/JPY Analysis: Moment of Truth for the Yen’s 2023 Trend
USD/JPY bulls are defending support in the 147.00 area, but the pair is vulnerable to a big breakdown from here...
US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, Gold
The US dollar looks quite a bit different than it did last week. But it’s the week ahead that’s of interest, as we’re getting both an NFP and CPI report before next Wednesday’s FOMC. Buckle up.
Does Bitcoin’s rally mean the crypto bull market is back?
We consider factors which are boosting crypto prices, not just the Bitcoin rally. Optimistic scenarios that drove the equity market to new highs are giving way to more realistic view that the Fed will not be able to swing quickly to rate cuts in early 2024. The CME’s FedWatch shows traders expecting a 50 bps rate cut by June and at least 125 bp for 2024, in contrast with the latest Fed dot plot that shows a wide range of expectations from Fed participants, anticipating a 50 bp more modest reduction.
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US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Post-RBA Decline in Focus Ahead of US NFP
AUD/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (0.6548) as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the official cash rate at 4.35%.
British Pound Short-Term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Halted at Resistance
The British Pound bulls halted at resistance last week with the December opening-range now taking shape. Battle-lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
Nasdaq 100 forecast :Stocks slip for a second day with jobs data in focus
Stocks are heading for a second day of losses as investors look ahead to data releases ahead of Friday's key non-farm payroll and next week's FOMC meeting. Attention is on US ISM services PMI which is expected to rise and JOLTS job openings which are forecast to show a slight decline to 9.3 million. Stronger than expected data could see the market push back on Fed rate cut expectations, pulling stocks lower.
EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ services PMI data. FTSE falls for a second day, miners under pressure.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Three-peat of hawkish disappointment under the RBA’s new leadership
The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?
S&P 500 forecast: A closer look at ‘Santa’s rally’
Santa’s rally refers to the tendency for equity markets to rally into the end of the year. Today we take a closer look at this phenomenon on the S&P 500.
Gold rally wounded by bearish reversal but not beyond repair
In the history of major key reversals in markets, surely the move in gold we’ve just witnessed is right up there. It was brutal, turning what was initially interpreted as a significant bullish move to record highs into a moment that may have done lasting damage for the bullion price
AUD/USD, USD/JPY: US rate outlook in focus ahead of RBA meeting, ISM services
While the RBA’s final rate meeting of 2023 is the headline act on the Australian data calendar, movement in AUD/USD and USD/JPY are likely to be dictated by gyrations in US yields and USD/CNH on Tuesday.
USDBRL should reflect Brazil's GDP, employment and services in the US, and data for China
Bullish factors The contraction of the Brazilian GDP in Q3 is expected to reduce the attractiveness of Brazilian assets and reinforce the need to cut the basic interest rate (SELIC), which could decrease foreign investments in the country and weaken the BRL. Bearish factors Slightly positive data for the American economy can reinforce the perception that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further and contribute to the global weakening of the USD. Disclosure of data for the Chinese economy can reinforce the perception of a faster rebound, favoring currencies' performance from commodity-exporting countries like Brazil.
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