News & Analysis

USD/JPY bulls are defending support in the 147.00 area, but the pair is vulnerable to a big breakdown from here...

The US dollar looks quite a bit different than it did last week. But it’s the week ahead that’s of interest, as we’re getting both an NFP and CPI report before next Wednesday’s FOMC. Buckle up.

We consider factors which are boosting crypto prices, not just the Bitcoin rally. Optimistic scenarios that drove the equity market to new highs are giving way to more realistic view that the Fed will not be able to swing quickly to rate cuts in early 2024. The CME’s FedWatch shows traders expecting a 50 bps rate cut by June and at least 125 bp for 2024, in contrast with the latest Fed dot plot that shows a wide range of expectations from Fed participants, anticipating a 50 bp more modest reduction.

AUD/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (0.6548) as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the official cash rate at 4.35%.

The British Pound bulls halted at resistance last week with the December opening-range now taking shape. Battle-lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.

Stocks are heading for a second day of losses as investors look ahead to data releases ahead of Friday's key non-farm payroll and next week's FOMC meeting. Attention is on US ISM services PMI which is expected to rise and JOLTS job openings which are forecast to show a slight decline to 9.3 million. Stronger than expected data could see the market push back on Fed rate cut expectations, pulling stocks lower.

EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ services PMI data. FTSE falls for a second day, miners under pressure.

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

Santa’s rally refers to the tendency for equity markets to rally into the end of the year. Today we take a closer look at this phenomenon on the S&P 500.