Markets were waiting for more details to emerge from Trump himself after The Wall Street Journal overnight had reported the US president was willing to leave Iran with the Strait unopened. Well, in a Truth Social post, Trump seems to have confirmed this, trigging a mild downward reaction in oil prices. But with oil prices failing to show a more meaningful reaction, this is not going to do the trick. Until the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut for US and its allies, the global energy shock is not going to go away. Iran will no doubt make sure of that so that so that there is no return to hostilities. We maintain a short-term bullish crude oil forecast.
Trump: Go to strait of Hormuz and 'just take' oil
A few moments ago, Trump suggested that countries like the UK should build up the courage to go to the strait of Hormuz and “just take” oil. Markets were not very impressed by this, after pricing in a more meaningful change in rhetoric from the US President. We saw only a modest decline in oil prices and equity indices held prior levels.
“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump said as he criticised the UK and other countries who “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran”. He added that “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Analysis: Oil above $100 could keep risk appetite downbeat
Trying to second-guess the White House is rarely a profitable exercise, but for now, markets appear willing to latch onto any hint of de-escalation. Reports that Trump may accept an end to the conflict without reopening the Strait have offered some tentative support to risk appetite, but only a mild one. Oil prices could climb further higher if the strait of Hormuz doesn’t open.
It is clear that oil above $100 a barrel is a politically sensitive level in Washington. That may be why we have seen a softer tone from Trump. But if oil stays high, inflation risks will start creeping back into focus, and this will ultimately hurt risk appetite beyond a short relief.
Iran’s priority is clearly to maximise economic pressure, and keeping energy prices elevated. Recent actions, including attacks on regional shipping, underline just how determined Tehran is to retain leverage. But at least now the probability of US boots on the ground has slipped slightly. Investors can at least entertain the idea of a less aggressive path forward. But it is a glass half empty situation.
Crude oil forecast: WTI technical analysis
WTI crude has finally broken above the key $100 per barrel level—an area that had acted as strong resistance since mid-March.
This level had been tested multiple times in recent weeks on the crude oil price chart, making the eventual breakout technically significant. We have now seen a confirmed daily close above it, with the contract settling around $104 yesterday.
Although prices have pulled back overnight on WSJ report and now Trump’s social post, the buyers have stepped in to defend the $100 level, reinforcing it as new support while keeping bullish pressure intact.
As long as oil prices remain above $100, the upside risks to our crude oil forecast are likely to persist. At the same time, elevated oil prices could continue to weigh on risk assets or at least cap their upside.
A decisive move back below $100 would be needed to shift this outlook—and that would likely require a meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Only under those conditions could we adopt a more clearly bullish stance on broader risk assets.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
