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Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

European Open: EUR/USD stalls at resistance ahead of US inflation

EUR/USD has rallied as part of a 3-wave countertrend move, but with key inflation from the US on tap we’re watching prices around a key resistance cluster.

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Yesterday 01:23 AM
Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

EUR/USD stalls at resistance ahead of US inflation

EUR/USD has rallied as part of a 3-wave countertrend move, but with key inflation from the US on tap we’re watching prices around a key resistance cluster.

Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/USD climbs on German CPI and BoE lead

The EUR/USD has today followed the GBP/USD higher.

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September 29, 2022 11:51 AM

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FOMC meeting instant reaction: Not even a whisper of a pivot yet

Even looking out just until the end of this year, Fed members are projecting another 125bps of rate hikes...

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September 21, 2022 03:25 PM
Research

How to trade inflation?

With inflation remaining stubbornly elevated and fears of a recession rising, where are there still opportunities in the market?

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September 20, 2022 09:52 AM

GBP/USD: Why pound parity (1.00) is a potentially plausible prospect

The eerie similarities to the mid-1980s hint that GBP/USD could fall toward parity (1.00) in the coming quarters...

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September 20, 2022 09:48 AM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

FOMC meeting preview: 100bps unlikely, but longer rate hike path in play

In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.

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September 19, 2022 03:25 PM

Michigan Consumer Sentiment data as expected. The table is set for the FOMC!

The FOMC meets on Wednesday and is likely to lift the Fed Funds rate by 75bps from 2.5% to 3.25%.

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September 16, 2022 12:08 PM
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Could tomorrow's Michigan Consumer Sentiment be the key for the FOMC’s decision next week?

If the inflation components are higher than expected, watch for a possible tape-bomb from the Wall Street Journal that the Fed is “more likely” to hike 100bps.

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September 15, 2022 03:01 PM

US retail sales preview: Will falling gas prices help or hurt retail sales?

The most salient change for US consumers in August was a steep, double-digit decline in gasoline prices...

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September 14, 2022 11:26 AM
Research

2 Trades to watch for today’s US inflation report: EUR, Gold

Today's US inflation report is a key event this week for traders, who are placing bets that it will soften ahead of the report to send equities higher and the US dollar lower.

US CPI preview: Inflation could fall to 8%, but the Fed isn’t slowing down yet

To the downside, the first key support level to watch on USD/JPY will be 139.50, where prices topped out back in July...

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September 9, 2022 03:21 PM

ECB hawks out in force ahead of Eurozone CPI; EUR/GBP

Hawkish ECB speakers over the last few days, combined with the lack of BOE speakers, have sent EUR/GBP to its highest level since July 6th.

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August 30, 2022 11:50 AM

Instant insight: Powell “forceful” in fighting inflation at Jackson Hole

Mr. Powell clearly hit a hawkish note, emphasizing the importance of leaving policy tight until inflation was thoroughly licked.

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August 26, 2022 10:53 AM
Research

European Open: US inflation and Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in focus

Jerome Powell will be hoping that inflation data, released just 90 minutes before his Jackson Hole speech, softens as expected.

Q2 GDP revised higher, but so is the Price Index; DXY

The higher revision to the Price Index continues to shed light on the fact that Fed underestimated inflation over the course of the last year.

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August 25, 2022 11:51 AM
Bank notes of different currencies

Mexico Mid-month inflation shows rates continue to climb; USD/MXN

Mexico’s mid-month inflation rate hit a new high for the cycle today at 8.62%, which is helping push USD/MXN lower today towards prior support.

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August 24, 2022 11:11 AM

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Research

US PMI’s disappoint ahead of key inflation data and Jackson Hole

Whilst US PMI data disappointed, it’s not as though the economic deterioration we’re witnessing didn’t come without plenty of warning. And the upshot all this is that it's deflationary.

Federal reserve name plaque on building

Jackson Hole preview: Will Powell pull the plug on pivot predictions?

Jerome Powell is likely to lay out a relatively hawkish outlook for monetary policy in our view, prompting traders to start pricing in a 75bps interest rate hike next month as the odds-on scenario...

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August 23, 2022 10:46 AM

RBNZ Review Hawkish Orr strike fails to boost bird - NZDUSD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has today raised the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3%. It is the RBNZ’s fourth straight 50bp hike in a row, in a tightening cycle that started back in October.

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August 16, 2022 11:43 PM
Research

Yes, inflation may have peak but it “remains far too high”

Sometimes the obvious needs to be said. And that is exactly what the BOC’s deputy governor said in his op-ed by stating inflation “remains far too high”.

Canadian July CPI weaker than previous month. Peak inflation for Canada?

The July Canadian CPI print came in weaker than June’s print and USD/CAD sold off. Traders may have been expecting an even weaker print, similar to that of the US CPI.

August 16, 2022 10:57 AM
Research

Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.