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GBP/JPY extends recovery as hot CPI boosts BoE hike odds

The GBP/JPY has been supported by a double dose of bullish factors this week.

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Yesterday 08:01 AM
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European Open: UK inflation up next, then focus shifts to the FOMC meeting

Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.

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Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

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US CPI recap: GBP/USD holds above 200-day EMA as inflation meets expectations

The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021

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March 14, 2023 10:05 AM
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US CPI preview: Fed rate expectations dive, USD/CAD tests 1.37

In the wake of the implosion of SVB, traders are dialing down their expectations for Fed hawkishness next week...

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March 13, 2023 10:54 AM
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Canada Q4 GDP worse than expected, but January starting on the right foot

The Canadian GDP was much worse than expected, however the GDP Price Deflator was also weak.

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February 28, 2023 10:05 AM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

EUR/USD: Rally potential after hot Spanish and French CPI readings

The ECB had already planned a half-point rate move in March, and these stronger readings are likely to bolster officials who say that more big moves are needed beyond that to get inflation under control.

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February 28, 2023 08:46 AM
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Traders to get another inflation fix ahead of the weekend

Markets cannot get enough of US inflation data at present and what it means for the Fed. And that means today’s PCE figures are now likely the more important.

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February 24, 2023 12:48 AM
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP in focus for eurozone CPI

Both EUR/GBP and EUR/GBP are hugging various pivot points ahead of the open, but whichever way they break initially our bias is for a break to new lows.

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February 23, 2023 12:03 AM
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European flash PMI’s and Canada inflation report in focus

CAD/JPY has piqued our interest ahead of today's economic data, which includes PMI's for Europe and the US and Canada's inflation and retail reports.

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February 21, 2023 12:09 AM
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FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!

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February 1, 2023 03:07 PM
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AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather

There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.

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GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

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December 14, 2022 01:08 AM

US CPI surprises for the second month in a row. What does it mean for the Fed?

Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!

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December 13, 2022 11:01 AM
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FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

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December 12, 2022 03:21 PM

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Flash PMIs and US inflation on tap

The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.

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December 1, 2022 01:59 AM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

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November 30, 2022 08:58 AM
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Australian inflation fell… but just ‘weight’ a minute

Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y

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November 29, 2022 09:32 PM
Research

Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

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November 29, 2022 11:03 AM

Canadian inflation remains elevated. However, USD/CAD unfazed

Inflation in Canada is still high despite the Bank of Canada “only” hiking 50bps at its last meeting, rather than the 75bps that the markets expected

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November 19, 2022 10:12 AM
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Japan’s inflation hits the ‘40-year high’ club

Japan, long known for their lack of inflation, has just seen consumer prices rise to their highest levels since 1982.

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November 17, 2022 08:11 PM