Financial Market Alerts

Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.

Markets have been rocked by the biggest banking crisis since the 2008 financial crash.

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021

How did SVB collapse and what does it mean for financial markets?

In the wake of the implosion of SVB, traders are dialing down their expectations for Fed hawkishness next week...

The Canadian GDP was much worse than expected, however the GDP Price Deflator was also weak.

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

Inflation in Canada is still high despite the Bank of Canada “only” hiking 50bps at its last meeting, rather than the 75bps that the markets expected

Japan, long known for their lack of inflation, has just seen consumer prices rise to their highest levels since 1982.