Financial Market Alerts
GBP/JPY extends recovery as hot CPI boosts BoE hike odds
The GBP/JPY has been supported by a double dose of bullish factors this week.
European Open: UK inflation up next, then focus shifts to the FOMC meeting
Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.
A guide to the banking crisis: What happened and what comes next?
Markets have been rocked by the biggest banking crisis since the 2008 financial crash.
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Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.
US CPI recap: GBP/USD holds above 200-day EMA as inflation meets expectations
The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021
SVB collapse explained: What happened and what comes next?
How did SVB collapse and what does it mean for financial markets?
US CPI preview: Fed rate expectations dive, USD/CAD tests 1.37
In the wake of the implosion of SVB, traders are dialing down their expectations for Fed hawkishness next week...
Canada Q4 GDP worse than expected, but January starting on the right foot
The Canadian GDP was much worse than expected, however the GDP Price Deflator was also weak.
EUR/USD: Rally potential after hot Spanish and French CPI readings
The ECB had already planned a half-point rate move in March, and these stronger readings are likely to bolster officials who say that more big moves are needed beyond that to get inflation under control.
Traders to get another inflation fix ahead of the weekend
Markets cannot get enough of US inflation data at present and what it means for the Fed. And that means today’s PCE figures are now likely the more important.
EUR/USD and EUR/GBP in focus for eurozone CPI
Both EUR/GBP and EUR/GBP are hugging various pivot points ahead of the open, but whichever way they break initially our bias is for a break to new lows.
European flash PMI’s and Canada inflation report in focus
CAD/JPY has piqued our interest ahead of today's economic data, which includes PMI's for Europe and the US and Canada's inflation and retail reports.
FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY
Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!
AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather
There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.
GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC
Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.
US CPI surprises for the second month in a row. What does it mean for the Fed?
Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!
The 200-day MA comes to the rescue for the #SP500 - with no thanks to #Yellen for *not* providing blanket insurance for US deposits, and #Powell insisting on 'fighting #inflation' Sentiment is back to the fragile stage! Short bias for #AUD remains (note 200-day MA capped… https://t.co/9EKqinocLv https://t.co/WgPEOIYW2l
FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?
While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.
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Flash PMIs and US inflation on tap
The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.
NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?
Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...
Australian inflation fell… but just ‘weight’ a minute
Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y
Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change
This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.
Canadian inflation remains elevated. However, USD/CAD unfazed
Inflation in Canada is still high despite the Bank of Canada “only” hiking 50bps at its last meeting, rather than the 75bps that the markets expected
Japan’s inflation hits the ‘40-year high’ club
Japan, long known for their lack of inflation, has just seen consumer prices rise to their highest levels since 1982.