The Nasdaq 100 faces a crucial week, with markets once again turning their attention to big tech earnings. After a recent bout of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed trade rhetoric, US equities have stabilised, and the broader tone remains cautiously constructive, with tech-heavy indices approaching their record levels. Despite gold and silver surging to repeated highs, stock investors’ appetite for risk appears largely intact. It appears like investors still have confidence in the underlying strength of the US economy to outweigh concerns around politics and trade, allowing equities to remain close to record levels. That resilience is now being tested as earnings season gathers momentum. Valuations, particularly in US technology stocks, remain stretched by most traditional measures. Even so, expectations going into this earnings season are notably high. Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq 100 forecast remains tilted to the upside.
Before discussing earnings, let’s turn our gaze to the chart of Nasdaq first.
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Technical analysis and key levels to watch
From a technical point of view, the Nasdaq 100 has responded positively to recent volatility. The index rebounded sharply at the start of the week, printing a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart on Monday, a pattern that often signals renewed buying interest after a pullback. So far, that looks to be the case as we have seen some follow-up technical buying above the high of Monday’s range.
The break above 25,800 resistance zone on our US Tech 100 chart, which is derived from the underlying Nasdaq 100 futures, suggests that the bullish momentum is attempting to reassert itself ahead of key earnings releases.
The immediate focus now shifts to the all-time high recorded in October, around the 26,257 level. A sustained move above this area would place the index back into uncharted territory and potentially open the door to another leg higher, provided earnings do not deliver any material negative surprises.
On the downside, 25,700 represents the first meaningful support level should old resistance at 55,800 does not turn into support. Below that, the 25,300-25,200 region stands out as a major technical floor. As long as this zone holds, the broader uptrend remains structurally intact.
However, a decisive break below the 25,300 - 25,200 area — particularly if triggered by disappointing results from big tech — would raise the risk of a deeper short-term correction and a broader reassessment of current valuations.
Earnings Season Takes Centre Stage
This week is especially important, with roughly one-fifth of the S&P 500 set to report quarterly results. Of particular significance are earnings from four members of the Magnificent Seven: Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Tesla. These reports are likely to play a central role in shaping near-term market direction.
Investors will be paying close attention to signs about the resilience of consumer demand in an environment of still-elevated interest rates, and the pace at which large-scale investment in artificial intelligence is translating into real revenue growth.
Given how much optimism is already priced into US tech stocks, the bar for positive surprises is relatively high. Strong numbers could reinforce the current bullish trend, while any disappointment may have an outsized impact on sentiment.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
