DAX Outlook: DAX breaks resistance

APAC / Macro

• APAC equities: Mostly lower after Wall St. pullback; KOSPI outperformed on return from holiday.
• China–chips: FT reports a customs crackdown on NVIDIA AI chips; US President Trump floated “maybe” stopping massive imports from China.
• US data during shutdown: BLS preparing to release Sept. CPI (staff recalled; target by month-end per media).
• Japan FX: FinMin Kato flagged one-sided, rapid JPY moves; reiterated preference for stability in line with fundamentals.
• Europe open: Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after Thursday’s -0.4% cash close.

US Session Recap

US stocks: S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly below record highs; Dow Jones fell by 0.5% profit-taking ahead of earnings season.

Corporate reports: The major US banks (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs) will kick off the Q3 earnings season next week; consensus expects an 8.8% year-on-year profit growth for the S&P 500.

Individual stocks: Delta Air Lines (+4%) benefited from a strong forecast, Costco (+3%) from robust September sales figures.

• US/China: Tensions up—rare-earth export controls from China; US rhetoric on tariffs/imports.
• Fed speak: Barr, Daly, Kashkari leaned cautious, noting inflation uncertainty and modestly restrictive policy; more cuts projected as risk management.

FX / Rates / Commodities

• DXY: Paused recent strength; little impulse from Fed remarks.
• Rates: UST 10y futures bounced off lows; Bunds and JGBs steady-to-firmer.
• Commodities: Brent fell below USD 65/bbl as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire reduced geopolitical pressure; Gold stable at around USD 3,970/oz after briefly surpassing the USD 4,000 mark; copper softer amid China trade frictions.

Geopolitics

• Gaza: Israel’s government approved a multi-phase plan tied to hostage releases; Hamas declared war’s end and a permanent ceasefire (per statements), with mediators (Qatar/US) cited.
• Russia–Ukraine: Russia launched mass strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; widespread outages reported in the east.

Trade & Policy Tidbits

• WH signals progress on enabling US chip exports to Saudi Arabia (WSJ).
• US probes Singapore’s Megaspeed over alleged China chip-rule evasion (NYT).
• US/India and US/Japan noted constructive trade contacts.
• Domestic headlines: BLS aiming to keep CPI (Oct 15 sched.) on track; DOJ indictment of NY AG Letitia James reported; Fedwire/NSS to add Sundays/holidays operations.

DAX Technical Analysis

The Germany 40 (daily) has broken out of a multi-month descending triangle, confirming a bullish continuation. Price is trading above all key EMAs — 20 (24,159), 50 (24,007), 100 (23,744), and 200 (22,899) — with upward slopes showing strong trend alignment. RSI (67.6) is rising but below overbought, while Stoch RSI remains high, signaling sustained bullish momentum.

The breakout ends consolidation between 23,300–24,500, bringing the next psychological levels into play at 25,000 - 25,500. Support lies at 24,500, then 24,000–23,800. Holding above 23,900 keeps the bias bullish as this is above all major EMAs. Momentum appears firm yet controlled due to the increasingly upwards sloping EMA20.

Today’s Watchlist

• Data: Norway CPI (Aug), Canada jobs (Sep), US Michigan Sentiment (Oct prelim), China Sep M2/New Loans.
• Speakers: Fed’s Daly, Goolsbee, Musalem.
• Micro/other: Ongoing shutdown optics; chip-export and tariff rhetoric; China enforcement on tech imports.