DAX Stalls Below 24,000 as ADP Employment numbers worst in 2 years

Market Performance & Economic Data

• U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs for the second time this week.
• Gains were supported by Apple (+2%) after an analyst upgrade and better-than-feared Tesla delivery figures.
• A US–Vietnam trade deal further lifted sentiment, though it remains under final negotiation. Vietnam is set to purchase 50 Boeing aircraft ($8B) and $2.9B in U.S. agriculture goods.
• Trading is condensed today due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday, making today’s NFP jobs report the key market focus.

Key U.S. Data Today:

• Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 240K (last: 236K)
• Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): Expected 111K (last: 139K)
• S&P Services PMI (Jun): Expected 53.1
• ISM Services PMI (Jun): Expected 50.8 (last: 49.9)
• Durable Goods Orders
• JOLTS Job Openings: Expected 7.32M (last: 7.39M)

Trade & Tariffs

• Trump said Europe is tough on trade and the U.S. holds leverage.
• The Senate passed Trump’s tax bill, but it is stalled in the House; Speaker Johnson targets a vote by July 4.
• Trump announced that countries will soon receive letters outlining tariff payments.
• A deal with India may be announced as soon as Thursday, though still pending Trump’s final sign-off.
• South Korea warned a tariff deal before July 8 is uncertain.
• Mexico is sending a delegation to Washington for talks on trade, migration, and security.
• The EU is negotiating exemptions and sector-specific cuts under Trump’s universal tariff plan.

Fed Chair Powell Under Fire

• Trump called for Fed Chair Powell to resign, referencing calls for a Congressional investigation.
• FHFA head Bill Pulte accused Powell of political bias and deceptive testimony, stating it’s grounds for removal.
• Powell's term ends in May 2026, but he could remain on the board until 2028.

Currencies & Commodities

• EUR/USD steady near 1.1800, with ECB rhetoric having little effect.
• Crude oil pared gains, impacted by Iran suspending cooperation with the IAEA.
• Gold retreated slightly from weekly highs, with markets awaiting today’s data.

DAX Technical Analysis 4 Hours Chart

Market Snapshot:

• Current Price: ~23,850
• Price Action: Rebounded off ~23,200 lows, but now stalling below 24,000

Technical Indicators:

1. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Price touched the upper band recently and is now pulling back toward the mid-band (20 EMA).
• The bands are contracting slightly, suggesting decreasing volatility.

2. RSI (14)

• Current value: 53.66 – Neutral zone.
• RSI shows no divergence, but is failing to break above 60–65, showing momentum is fragile.

3. MACD (12,26,9)

• Still in bullish territory, but histogram is declining, and signal lines are converging.
• Bearish crossover is possible if weakness continues.

 

Trend & Structure:

• The bounce from the 23,200 level formed a higher low, but has not yet broken prior highs (near 24,100).
• The price is now hovering at the 20 EMA (mid-Bollinger band).
• A lower high might be forming if we fail to push above 24,000 again.

 

Key Levels:

Resistance:

• 🔺 23,900–24,000: Near-term barrier
• 🔺 24,100–24,200: Major resistance

Support:

• 🟢 23,700: Mid-BB / EMA area
• 🟢 23,500–23,400: Weak support zone
• 🟢 23,200: Major swing low

 

Summary:

• Price is consolidating after a decent rally.
• Indicators show neutral-to-weak momentum.
• A pullback to 23,700 is possible if buyers don’t step in.
• A break above 24,000 would revive bullish sentiment.

 

Outlook:

Short-term Bias:
Neutral, with slight downside risk if 23,700 fails.

Confirmation for Bulls:
Hold above 23,700 and reclaim 24,000+
Confirmation for Bears:
below 23,500 toward 23,200 again

 

Geopolitical Updates

Middle East:

• U.S. told Israel and Hamas it will support extending the ceasefire if negotiations continue.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister said their nuclear sites were severely damaged, possibly out of use long-term.
• The U.S. State Department demanded full Iranian cooperation with the IAEA.

Russia–Ukraine:

• Ukraine seeks air defense systems after U.S. aid halted.
• Russia expects new peace talks soon.
• North Korea to send 30,000 additional troops to Russia (NHK).

Europe

• European Commission President von der Leyen faces a symbolic no-confidence vote in Parliament, expected to fail.

Corporate News

• Microsoft (MSFT) is laying off 9,000 employees.