Hang Seng Tech bulls searching for an antidote

• Price action still refuses to reward bullish narratives
• Key resistance continues to repel every rally
• Push above 5,215 breaks sequence of lower highs

Good news, same outcome

There have been plenty of bullish narratives thrown at Hang Seng Tech since late last week. Yet, as has so often been the case when the index reaches this technical juncture, it continues to struggle for traction.

China's "national team" stepped in to support mainland equities following the sharp sell-off. TSMC reiterated that AI demand remains a multi-year structural story while unveiling another US$100 billion investment in Arizona. CXMT's blockbuster IPO, slated to list next week, continued to attract enormous institutional and retail demand despite enthusiasm proving less frenzied than recent technology listings. Meanwhile, Kimi K3 reinforced that China's AI capabilities continue to advance, even if it also prompted investors to reassess AI valuations more broadly.

The headlines have changed. The market's response hasn't.

As has been the case repeatedly in recent months, there has been no shortage of reasons for the bulls to be optimistic. Yet the market has consistently failed to reward that optimism. 

The barrier bulls still can't break

Source: TradingView

The technical picture explains why. Since peaking in October 2025, the descending trendline, 100-day moving average and, more recently, horizontal resistance around 4,820 have repeatedly combined to repel rallies. Unless buyers can finally deliver a decisive close above this zone, there's a growing risk the latest rebound proves to be another false dawn rather than the start of a more durable advance.

Even if cleared, bulls would still have another obstacle to overcome at 5,020 before a retest of the June high at 5,215 comes into view. Only a break above there would finally interrupt the sequence of lower highs that's been in place since October.

On the downside, 4,600 remains the first level to watch. It has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance, including during last week's sharp sell-off. A decisive break below would expose 4,400 initially, before bringing the June swing low near 4,250 into focus.

The oscillators are not delivering a definitive message on directional risks, with the picture further clouded by headlines surrounding China's national team buying. RSI (14) has broken its short-term uptrend and is hovering around the neutral 50 level, while MACD has only just crossed into positive territory. For now, I'd be inclined to place greater weight on price action than the oscillators.