Hang Seng Tech's biggest hurdle is back

• Bulls confront stubborn 100-day moving average
• Break above 4911 shifts technical outlook

The Hang Seng Tech Index is once again testing the 100-day moving average, a level that has repeatedly acted like kryptonite for the bulls. As outlined earlier this month, every attempt to break above it since late 2025 has ultimately failed, leaving behind another lower high and reinforcing the broader bearish trend.

Again, there has been no shortage of supportive headlines this week, with CXMT's blockbuster market debut reinforcing confidence in China's semiconductor industry, while Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg argued in an interview with the Financial Times that the US should not ban Chinese AI models.

But as I've noted previously, the market simply isn't buying bullish narratives. Despite a steady stream of positive news in China, bulls have repeatedly failed to capitalise. However, while technical hurdles remain, that may finally be starting to change.

The index has rebounded strongly from well-established support around 4600, broken above the downtrend that's been in place since the October 2025 high and is now threatening to reclaim the 100-day moving average.

Source: TradingView

The latest advance has been led by heavyweight constituents Tencent, Xiaomi and JD.com, helping lift the broader index higher. However, weakness in semiconductor names suggests investors remain selective rather than indiscriminately bullish.

While the technical picture has improved, the burden of proof still rests with the bulls. Given the repeated failures at the 100-day moving average, I'd want to see not only a convincing close above it but also the July 16 high of 4911. A sustained break above the latter would leave the index trading at its highest level since early June, establish a higher high and provide the first real evidence that the sequence of lower highs may finally be ending.

Source: TradingView

Should that occur, attention among bulls would shift to 5020, a level that has acted as both support and resistance over recent months. Beyond, more significant swing highs at 5215 and 5289 come into focus.

However, another failure at the 100-day moving average may see the bears pounce, providing yet another opportunity to establish shorts beneath it with a stop above for protection, targeting a move back towards support at 4600.

Right now, the oscillators marginally favour the bulls. RSI (14) has pushed to a fresh high and is holding above the neutral 50 level, while MACD has crossed into positive territory and continues to diverge from its signal line. Upward momentum is slowly building, but after so many failed breakouts, the price still needs to confirm the move.