US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of US CPI
EUR/USD trades near the monthly low (1.0683) as it gives back the advance following the Federal Reserve rate-cut.
Share this:
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD trades near the monthly low (1.0683) as it gives back the advance following the Federal Reserve rate-cut, and developments coming out of the US may continue to sway the exchange rate as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show sticky inflation.
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of US CPI
EUR/USD struggles to retrace the decline following the US election even though Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,’ and it seems as though the central bank will continue to switch gears over the coming months as ‘we think that even with today's cut policy is still restrictive.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
US Economic Calendar
However, the update to the US CPI may put pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further combat inflation as the headline reading is projected to increase to 2.6% in October from 2.4% per annum the month prior, while the core index is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% during the same period.
With that said, signs of persistent inflation may keep EUR/USD under pressure as it curbs speculation for a Fed rate-cut in December, but a softer-than-expected US CPI report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it encourages the FOMC to further unwind its restrictive policy.
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD may threaten the opening range for November as it struggles to hold above 1.0770 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a breach below the weekly low (1.0683) raising the scope for a test of the June low (1.0666).
- Failure to defend the May low (1.0650) may push EUR/USD towards the 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0640 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) region but EUR/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from earlier this month if it defends the week low (1.0683).
- Need a move back above the 1.0860 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0880 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area to bring the monthly high (1.0937) on the radar, with a break/close above the 1.0940 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0960 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) zone opening up the 1.1070 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.1100 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region.
Additional Market Outlooks
Monetary vs Fiscal Policy: Implications for FX Markets
Gold Price Rebound Emerges Ahead of the 50-Day SMA
USD/CAD Still Holds Below Monthly High Following Dovish Fed Rate Cut
GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of 200-Day SMA amid Hawkish BoE Rate Cut
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD Forecast: FOREX Friday | October 30, 2026
While the energy shock is a major heading for the euro, the single currency remains supported by a hawkish European Central Bank while growth data in the Eurozone has also been surprisingly resilient. Meanwhile, the dollar faces some near-term positioning risks as markets look ahead to the US midterm elections and given the renewed weakness in technology stocks.
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Confidence Remains Limited After the ECB
The trading week is approaching its end and, for now, a neutral tone continues to dominate the euro's short-term price action. EUR/USD has recorded a move of only around -0.15% during the week, highlighting the pair's inability to establish a clear direction in favor of either the euro or the U.S. dollar.
US Dollar Price Action Setups in Central Bank Week
We’ve heard from the Fed, ECB and BoC with the BoJ up next later tonight and DXY trajectory hangs in the balance depending on how hawkish the Bank of Japan might turn out to be.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.